GBP/EUR

The Pound-to-Euro pair is moving down again after a brief foray higher at the start of the week and the charts point to a preference for further losses on the horizon. 

Theresa May has been on the ropes recently and the pressure does not appear to be letting up; if she resigns and a snap election is called Labour might swoop into power - it's not as far-fetched as it might seem.

The Pound is forecast to continue falling versus the stronger Euro in the week ahead as GBP/EUR's short-term downtrend extends. Politics may be the key driver as Brexit talks reach their conclusion and a constitutional crisis brews in Spain.

Sterling is likely to rise, according to research from Bank of America Merill Lynch, which argues low unemployment is behind central bank's hawkishness more than inflation. 

Our technical studies have us maintaining a bullish view for Pound Sterling over the coming week but a series of PMI data releases, the Conservative Party conference and brewing political instability in the Eurozone must be watched.

The Pound-to-Euro pair has formed a relatively high probability bullish continuation pattern which indicates a better than 50% chance tomorrow (Friday, September 29) will be an up-day.

Traders' appetite for Pounds may have reached its limit and is increasingly at risk of falling, according to study of order flows undertaken by Scott Dingman, Quantitative analyst at Citibank.

The Pound-to-Euro moved in a range-bound corridor between 1.12 and 1.14 last week and we do not see much promise of volatility in the week ahead – at least from scheduled events anyway. 

Pound Sterling's run higher against the Euro will be tested this week by some key resistance points observable on the technical charts while the Bank of England's Mark Carney, Prime Minister Theresa May and the release of retail sales data fill the fundamental calendar.

The uptrend is still intact despite a pull-back following poor wage data. 

Last week Mario Draghi dismissed concerns about the impact of the appreciating Euro on the Eurozone's fragile recovery and as a consequence, the Euro rallied.

Futures market positioning is getting overstretched on the Euro - what could this mean for the exchange rate?

Sterling is at risk from twin threats of ECB policy normalisation and Brexit uncertainty, according to a report from Jefferies International.

The Pound continued climbing against the Rupee since our last forecast and has met and surpassed our upside target of 83.175, reaching a high of 83.210 last Friday.

Pound Sterling might have bottomed against the Euro and may be starting a new trend higher but our studies suggest the recovery will likely be limited.

The Pound to Euro is in a strong downtrend, and to state an oftstated investment maxim, "the trend is your friend until the bend at the end."

 The Pound to Euro rate continues to move lower in a steady downtrend as political risk from Brexit fears weighs on Sterling.

The effects of the latest slide in the Pound on the economy have been disappointing, says Capital Economics' Andrew Wishart, but that doesn’t mean things won’t get better in the future.

A major meeting of top central bankers in Jackson Hole Wyoming is the event on the top of everyone's agenda's today, although markets may be slightly optimisitc about the possibility of fresh information emerging, according to most analysts.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is still selling off on Brexit fears at the start of the new trading week.