Australian Dollar Forecast

The outlook for the Australian Dollar has improved and upside risks are starting to build, according to a new research update from CBA.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate entered the holiday-shortened week on its front foot and with scope to rise as far 1.90 or slightly above over the coming days, although Sterling could be pressured lower into a retest of support at 1.88 later this week in the event of further U.S. Dollar declines.

Australia's Dollar was on the back foot in the penultimate session of the week but had risen against currencies of most Australian trade partners for the week overall in a sign it could be bottoming after a lengthy run of losses, although many forecasts suggest a recovery remains some way off.

The near-term outlook has turned less favourable for the Australian Dollar say economists at Wells Fargo in their latest global economic and exchange rate forecast update, although they remain of the view the currency will ultimately trend higher in 2022.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate was edging higher at the mid-week milestone, aided by an ongoing antipodean underperformance that has got the Aussie closing in on the bottom spot among major currencies for 2021 and which could see GBP/AUD rising to 1.94 in the coming months, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The direction of travel for the Australian Dollar remains negative for now say analysts at Morgan Stanley who are concerned with the "asymmetric" risks posed to the economy posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.

The Australian Dollar could remain a laggard among major currencies in the coming months, according to newly downgraded forecasts from Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a performance that is seen helping GBP/AUD to eventually sustain its recent move above 1.85.

Foreign exchange analysts at Wall Street banking giant Morgan Stanley aren't convinced the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to become a source of significant source of upside impetus.

The Australian Dollar was dealt an additional setback Thursday when official statistics revealed a further deterioration in the jobs market for the month of May, although the data has merely dented sentiment and is seen as unlikely to derail the antipodean currency's recovery. 

The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is trading a percent lower following a solid set of employment numbers out of Australia.

An update to their set of exchange rate forecasts see ABN Amro turning more positive on the commodity currency bloc.

Citibank, the world’s largest currency dealer, believes the major threat to extensive Aussie Dollar appreciation is the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Analysts at J P Morgan see the AUD/USD trough lows holding, and the tentative up-trend advancing, although upside progress will probably be slow. 

The near-term outlook favours more Aussie dollar strength, but both institutions are forecasting weakness towards the end of 2016.

Lloyds Bank provides insight and forecasts for the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.