Pound to Euro: Nvidia Earnings Pose Immediate Risk to the Rally

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Any negative market reaction to Nvidia's earnings results, due later today, will challenge Pound Sterling's ongoing rally against the Dollar and Euro.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has risen to 1.1875 in midweek trade, meaning it has now recovered the losses it registered following the August 01 interest rate cut at the Bank of England.

The development follows five successive days of gains for the Pound against the Euro, which is an unusually strong winning streak for the pair, and it also means our Week Ahead Forecast target at 1.1850 was taken out a few days earlier than we anticipated.

Sterling fell after the Bank of England cut interest rates to 5.0% from 5.25%, suggesting investors were not fully prepared for the cut, with a good portion of the market thinking it would wait until September to commence. "The surprise rate cut from the BoE combined with stretched positioning led to the sharp sell-off in GBP vs. the EUR and a collapse in long GBP positions," says Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank.

Foley thinks the Pound's period of outperformance can continue, with any setbacks likely to be shallow. "We would be buyers of cable on dips and look for the pound to perform well against both the USD and the EUR into next spring," she says.

Underpinning the Pound will be a gradual approach to further interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, which Rabobank thinks will keep the Pound's rate appeal intact. "The BoE is likely to only cut rates once a quarter going forward," says Foley.

By contrast, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to cut at a faster pace.

Immediate Risks

Looking at today's potential price action, the release of Nvidia's earnings could pose an immediate challenge to the Pound's rally against the Euro and Dollar.

But why would a U.S.-listed technology company impact the Pound? The answer lies in the substantial impact Nvidia has on global market performance and sentiment.

The AI poster child now accounts for a significant portion of the S&P 500's outperformance, and any negative reaction to the company's results will hit other technology companies and could trigger a decent selloff. According to one estimate, 35% of the increase in the S&P 500’s market cap since the beginning of the year has come from Nvidia alone.

Any 'risk off' following a disappointment would weigh on Pound-Dollar in particular, as this exchange rate is heavily overbought. But Pound-Euro is another risk-sensitive pair, and we think a retracement of some of the recent gains would be likely.

"Expectations for Nvidia are high and revenues are predicted to increase by as much as 70%," says Olle Holmgren, an analyst at SEB.

When expectations are as elevated as they are, it doesn't take much by way of an earnings miss to disappoint.

"Investors are to some extent in wait-and-see mood ahead of the hotly anticipated results from tech superstar Nvidia, due out later. The chip giant is again expected to demonstrate that it’s firing on all cylinders, with another round of blockbuster numbers expected, fuelled by accelerating demand for its AI-focused computing platforms," says Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"But a lot will also be riding on the outlook and guidance from the firm, with some uncertainty swirling about just how long it will be before rapacious appetite for its products is sated," she adds.