Pound Forecast

The Bank of England is close to ending its interest rate hiking cycle and this will leave Pound Sterling vulnerable to further losses against the Dollar and Euro, according to one investment bank.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate has deepened an almost year-long downtrend but could attempt a corrective rebound this week if an easing of coronavirus-related restrictions in Shanghai is welcomed by global markets.

The Pound to Euro rate ended last week with a sharp rally from seven month lows but it could be likely to stall around the nearby 1.1827 level this week in which parliamentary testimonies from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers and a deluge of UK economic data are the highlights for Sterling. 

As a "tide of pessimism" hits the UK, expect further GBP weakness says BNP Paribas.

ING raise EUR/GBP forecasts, MUFG hold tactical buy on EUR/GBP and Crédit Agricole says EUR to benefit from ECB policy shift.

The Dollar will turn tail and retreat from around mid-year says analysts at Westpac.

Investment bank Goldmans Sachs have raised their target on a trade betting the Euro will rise further in value against the British Pound.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been hobbled alongside most other Sterling pairs but enters the new week couched in a pocket of important technical support levels on the charts and at a depth that creates opportunity for shortsighted dip buyers ahead of Thursday’s first-quarter GDP report.

The Pound to Euro rate climbed from near April lows last week and may attempt to extend its recovery over the coming days but it would likely take a significant 'hawkish' surprise from the Bank of England for it to avoid succumbing to the implications of any gloomier set of BoE economic forecasts this Thursday.

Analysts at ABN AMRO have said they are slashing their forecasts for the British Pound on the belief the Bank of England is nearly done with rate hikes.

The coming week promises further losses for the British Pound unless the Bank of England announces a bigger than expected interest rate rise on Thursday.

"The regime of softer growth-higher inflation outlook has persisted and remains supportive of USD strength" - JP Morgan.

If the uptrend is still alive - as per Credit Suisse's research findings - this 2022 high can yet be retested and even broken.

The Pound to Dollar rate entered the new week testing a major level of support on the charts and with only limited recovery prospects following a lengthy run of losses, while further declines remain a possibility due to an increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy stance. 

The Pound to Euro rate was dealt a setback last week as Sterling sustained widespread losses and the European single currency staged a short-lived rebound, although signs of a souring UK economic outlook could mean it’s set to remain subdued with limited prospects for recovery over the coming days.

The British Pound's gains against the Euro are now 'in the bag' according to new research from a major Scandinavian lender and investment bank.

"The US dollar could be close to peaking" - MUFG.

Western Union Business Solutions says GBP/USD could be poised to make a decisive break below 1.30 this week.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate remains suppressed and at risk of further lurches below 1.30 over the coming days due to continuing strength of the U.S. Dollar and likely side effects of a possible People’s Bank of China (PBoC) effort to fend off unwanted strength in the Renminbi.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate rallied back to within arm’s reach of post-referendum highs last week but could be seen stalling and then sprawling this week if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) comes to the aid of the European single currency in a bid to fend of unwanted strength in the Renminbi.