Spreadex: Londoner takes A £200K Punt on Trump Victory

The US election is Spreadex's single biggest betting event ever and the company reports some huge bets being placed, including one customer who has staked £200,000 on a Trump victory.

Just hours ahead of the opening of polling booths in the US it is reported that Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90% of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House. 

This is according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

Her chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.

In an election that has had Agatha Christie levels of twists and turns there was time for (hopefully just) one more this weekend, with the FBI reaffirming the conclusion that Clinton committed no criminal wrongdoing in using a private email server.

Beyond what now happens to FBI chief James Comey, the big question following the news is whether it has come too late?

Has the Democratic nominee’s reputation been irrevocably damaged by Comey’s controversial decision to re-open the investigation just one week before the vote?

It speaks to the ludicrous nature of this election that the Clinton email scandal can be seen as a bigger threat to her chances of winning than Trump’s litany of potential crimes and definite gaffs have to his.

Nevertheless, there has been a notable improvement in the Democrat’s standing in Spreadex’s prices following the FBI reveal on Sunday.

The Democrats to Win binary spread now stands at 76.9-83.4; below where it was pre-Comey controversy, but still higher than the 69.2-75 it had dipped to last week.

Trump and the Republicans, on the other hand, have fallen back to 16.6-23.1 from 26.6-33.4 in the space of 7 days.

Elsewhere the trend is similar.

Clinton is now at fixed odds of 1/5 to become the next President, while Trump is back up to 3/1; the Democrat has also extended her Electoral College Vote Supremacy spread to 80-110 from as low as 35-60 following the FBI re-investigation.

One area does remain a toss-up, with Spreadex offering a narrow Clinton/Trump Sates Won Supremacy spread of 0-0.5-2.5.

From our clients’ perspective, while still largely behind Trump (due to both the value he offers compared to his opponent AND the spectre of Brexit that is current haunting investors), there has been a notable shift towards Clinton in the last couple of days.

£200K Bet on Trump

Big stakes supporting a Clinton/Trump Electoral College Vote Supremacy have begun to appear when before much of the action was selling that spread while there have been a wave of chunky fixed odds bets supporting the Democrat, though nothing as huge as the pair of £100k wagers on Trump.

A London-based punter stands to make a staggering half a million pounds if Donald Trump becomes the next President of the United States after placing £200,000 on the business mogul to win tomorrow’s election.

The money was traded with Spreadex.com on the company’s fixed odds prices by a male customer, with the bets placed at different dates and on different odds over the past month.

If he is successful, he stands to make a profit of just under £500,000, on top of the return of his original stake.

The stake, along with other big bets, has meant that the US election is now Spreadex’s biggest single betting event in history.

It’s official, the US election is now our single biggest betting event ever and we are seeing some huge bets being placed, including one customer who has staked £200,000 on a Trump victory.

With the U.S. in the closing stages of the campaign and the polls seeming to change almost hourly, it should make for a very interesting few days in the lead up to the election.”