Turkish Lira

The Lira is outbidding all others with its yield offering to international investors and Credit Agricole has flagged it as the number one ‘carry trade’ out there.

The Turkish Lira softened ahead of the weekend but has been an outperformer for the month of August and remained close to an important resistance level against the Dollar, any overcoming of which could lead to even further declines in USD/TRY as well as GBP/TRY.

The Turkish Lira took no prisoners on Thursday when sweeping the board of opposition from major developed and emerging market currencies alike after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey defied a sceptical market and pressure from Ankara when leaving interest rates unchanged in its latest policy decision.

The Lira advanced against the Dollar, Pound and Euro in a favourable market for risky currencies on Wednesday after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey continued its bid to reduce inflation which, alongside Ankara, may test the CBRT and Lira’s resolve over the coming months.

The Turkish Lira has been an unlikely outperformer over the recent month but will need the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to defy pressure from Ankara for a reduction of interest rates this Wednesday and in the months afterward if its recovery is to continue.

The Lira hit record lows against the Dollar Thursday while ceding substantial ground to other currencies even after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) held its interest rate steady, although there’s no shortage of reasons for why the Turkish currency could make a comeback soon.

The Lira was stable but underperforming other emerging market currencies on Thursday after the Turkish central bank said its cash rate is likely to remain at 19% until a “significant fall” in inflation has been achieved, leaving the Turkish currency at the beck and call of global bond markets.

The Turkish Lira outperformed developed and emerging market counterparts on Tuesday despite widespread U.S. Dollar strength and could now be on the cusp of a more durable turnaround against the both the greenback and European single currency, according to technical analysts at Commerzbank.

The Lira strengthened Wednesday but was still heavily in the red against many currencies for 2021 and may struggle to advance much further ahead of Thursday's Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) policy decision, the first under Governor Sahap Kavcioglu and a watershed moment for the Turkish Lira.

The Lira was under pressure Tuesday as the Dollar rose, risk assets tipped lower and the Turkish unit was penalised for Ankara's intervention at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which threatens a new crisis and has seen Commerzbank raise its USD/TRY forecast to 10.00.

The Lira was crushed early in the new week with losses rivalled those seen by Pound Sterling following the 2016 Brexit referendum after another Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Governor was shown the door after only a months-long tenure in an apparent political response to last week's interest rate rise.

The Lira turned back onto recovery road leading GBP/TRY, USD/TRY and EUR/TRY to topple on Thursday after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) more-than met expectations with its latest interest rise, prompting some analysts to suggest forecast upgrades are on the way.

The Lira outlook has improved since the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) raised interest rates this week, leading Commerzbank to scrap forecasts for further punishing declines in the coming weeks, with the Turkish currency now expected to consolidate near to current levels into year-end.

The Lira leapt higher against the Dollar, Pound and Euro on Thursday after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT, TCMB) raised interest rates and announced a landmark shift in how it sets policy, placing the Turkish currency on course to reverse its summer sell-off, according to some analysts. 

The Lira was steady against major currencies on Wednesday even after reported remarks from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that appeared to cast doubt over the country's interest rate outlook ahead of central bank meeting that is of the utmost importance to the outlook for the Turkish currency. 

The Lira advanced against major currencies on Friday with the Turkish unit having won new advocates within the analyst community ahead of next week's central bank interest rate decision, which the market hopes will bring a return to policy orthodoxy, potentially providing for an ongoing recovery of the fallen currency.

Turkey's troubled Lira was on course for its best week since the middle of 2018 on Wednesday after remarks from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemingly suggested that large interest rate hikes are on the way, although other recent rhetoric indicates that only that investors may just have selective hearing. 

The Pound-to-Lira exchange rate slumped an eye-watering 5% on Monday as markets grasped news of significant personnel changes in the upper echelons of Turkish finance, moves that have apparently been welcomed by markets.

The Lira tumbled to new lows on Friday as the Dollar sought a fifth consecutive advance, although the outlook is murky with forecasts from ABN Amro suggesting a 2021 unravelling of the greenback could throw the Turkish currency a lifeline, while others still look for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) intervention.

The Lira tumbled to new record lows Tuesday after a diplomatic spat with France further toxified an already poisonous environment that's got a threat of economic sanctions and ire over Turkey's interest rate policy threatening to push EUR/TRY and USD/TRY to 10.0 and 8.50 respectively.