South African Rand Forecasts

The Pound to South African Rand exchange rate has unraveled much of July’s rally already but it would risk falling further in the days ahead, and as far as roughly the 22.84 level, if the US Dollar remains soft.

Nedbank expects the rand to remain under pressure until the uncertainties around the election and the fiscal trajectory have been resolved.

The Pound to Rand exchange rate rallied early in the new week as a rising U.S. Dollar weighed on other currencies while Sterling benefited from the appointment of a new UK Prime Minister, although further gains could potentially be limited by a resilient show from South Africa’s economy.

The Pound to Rand exchange rate has sat out a rally in Sterling and would likely be at risk of slipping back toward its May lows in the days ahead if China’s Renminbi furthers a nascent rebound and if the U.S. Dollar continues to cool its heels following a lengthy advance.

The Pound to Rand exchange rate has attempted to further its April rebound in recent trading but could struggle for upward momentum on any recovery above 20.00 and would be at risk of sliding back toward 19.45 in days ahead as and when the USD/ZAR pair eases further from its latest highs.

The South African Rand has enjoyed a strong start to 2022 but this support is expected to fade over coming months according to local lender and investment bank Nedbank.

Strong seasonal factors are ensuring the South African Rand is one of the stars of early 2022.

Investor confidence in the Rand has been permanently shaken by the July riots, while expectations for interest rate rises at the U.S. Federal Reserve will act as a global headwind to the currency.

The Rand has weakened in response to a turn higher in the U.S. Dollar that has pushed it beneath key levels of support on the charts and cultivated risk of further losses in the process, some of which could potentially lift GBP/ZAR back to 20.82 or above over coming days.

The Rand charged higher alongside the Chinese Yuan and international stock markets on Tuesday but may rise even further before month-end, according to new research from Investec, although Thursday's South African Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision is a risk that could scupper the outperforming currency. 

The Rand was rebounding from earlier lows at the start of the new month as global risk appetite picked back up and after having gotten no help from better-than-expected GDP data, although Investec says the South African currency should remain on a recovery path into year-end, but a volatile one.

Political and budget challenges could mean 2018 is another tough year for the Rand which could allow GBP/ZAR to break above 20.00.

A strategy note out from Morgan Stanley suggests the rand is likely to benefit against the Japanese yen over coming weeks.

The South African rand could well strengthen over coming weeks as markets come to terms with the realisation that surging inflation must be answered by yet higher exchange rates.