Pound vs. New Zealand Dollar Consensus Forecast for Year-end from the Investment Banks

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The big brains at the world's investment banks think the Pound is still too richly priced against the New Zealand Dollar, according to a new survey.

Corpay's survey of these banks reveals the consensus is still convinced the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate will fall into year-end, with a consensus forecast some 200 pips below the current level in spot.

The consensus forecast is the single most useful forecast point available to us as it distils numerous opinions, projections and models from across the financial marketplace.

Corpay's guide is available on request.

The Q4 guide shows that investment banks have been playing catchup with the Pound's rally, as there has been a significant uplift in the median GBP/NZD forecast. The new consensus forecast is some 800 pips higher than where it was in Q2.

This is the largest upgrade for any GBP exchange rate right across Corpay's coverage universe.

The single highest forecast by any given institution has also been lifted, from 2.21 in Q2 to 2.23 by the start of the fourth quarter.

It should be noted that the highest and lowest forecasts tend to be little more than points of interest, given they are hefty outliers.

The lowest forecast, incredibly, is still below 2.0% at 1.94.

Investment bank GBP/NZD consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. Featuring the median, mean, high and low points forecasted by over 30 investment banks. Please request a copy here.

Looking at some recognisable names, ANZ has actually lowered its forecast for year-end, as has NAB.

This suggests some domestic lenders are pushing back against a consensus that sees fit to raise expectations for year-end.

The New Zealand Dollar has come under pressure of late owing to an acceleration in the pace the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has approached interest rate cuts.

However, support has emerged from China, where authorities are introducing measures to bolster the economy.

The key risk into year-end involves the U.S. elections, where a 'red sweep' outcome could boost the Dollar, which tends to weigh on NZD more than it does GBP, which implies notable GBP/NZD upside risks to the consensus forecast.