The UK has the wrong split of growth and too much inflation to sustain a normal hiking cycle. Brexit risks are also a threat to Sterling but directional calls are best avoided for the time being.

 

December 19,2017

euro exchange rate 6

Politics takes centre stage over the next five days, with key events including the evolving Brexit story and Catalan elections in the Eurozone. Charts continue to show a bias to the upside.

December 18,2017

morgan stanley exchange rates 1

A transition deal means a slower journey to a bad destination so if an agreement is struck in the new year, it will be unlikely to boost the economy’s performance.

December 18,2017

pound exchange rate 2

Political risks becomes more balanced in 2018 while the Bank of England's northward march could provide the Pound with an edge over its continental neighbour.

December 15,2017

ecb press conference frankfurt july 2017

The European central bank kept monetary policy unchanged but substantially revised up economic growth projections at its policy meeting on Thursday.

December 14,2017

Retail sales surged in November. Focus: "Sufficient Progress", Bank of England and traders’ reactions to the “amendment 7” defeat of the government in parliament.

December 14,2017

Economic data dominates the agenda for Sterling over Wednesday and Thursday while the European Council decision is the main event for Friday. 

December 13,2017

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