Euro Resumes Lower Following ECB Rate Cut

ECB president Christine Lagarde, vice-president Luis de Guindos and Bank of Slovenia Governor Boštjan Vasle entering the external ECB Governing Council Press Conference in Brdo, Slovenia, 17. October, 2024.

Euro exchange rates extended losses after markets bet the European Central Bank (ECB) was willing to accelerate the pace it cuts interest rates.

The Euro to Pound Sterling exchange rate declined to 0.8336 after the ECB cut its policy rate to 3.25% as expected and emphasised increasing concern about the state of the region's economy.

"Chances are that today’s decision represents a pivot point into a faster normalisation of monetary policy,” says Mark Wall, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

A faster pace of rate cuts is, all else equal, a headwind for the Euro. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate reflects this and resumes its decline, having fallen to 1.0843 in the wake of the decision, having been as high as 1.0865 ahead of the ECB decision.

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The ECB said it still thinks interest rates remain at "restrictive" levels in an acknowledgement they can be reduced further.

Speaking to the press, ECB President Christine Lagarde said risks to growth are on the downside and the economy is somewhat weaker than expected.

The market expects another rate cut in December and a steady run of cuts over the subsequent months.

However, "a 50bp move in December is on the cards if the activity data continues to surprise to the downside in October and November - policymakers have shown a strong willingness to respond to weak growth data and to put a floor under the eurozone economy," says Kyle Chapman, FX Markets Analyst at Ballinger Group.

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The ECB was also careful to ensure it didn't encourage the market to bet more aggressively on the pace and quantum of future rate cuts.

"Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months," said the ECB in its statement. "Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace."

But, responses from economists say the focus at the ECB appears to be turning away from inflation as the central bank observed "the incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track."

"The ECB is now likely to switch its focus from fighting inflation to its new opponent, fighting weak economic growth," says Isaac Stell, Investment Manager at Wealth Club. "The lacklustre growth in the Euro Area, which expanded by just 0.2% in the three months to June 2024, highlights the need for a turnaround in fortunes."