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Pound to Dollar Rate "Can Slip to 1.28" Says ING

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The British Pound trades higher against the Dollar in the wake of Friday's retail sales data, but the risks are still tilted to the downside.

This is according to an analysis from ING Bank, where currency models argue for further weakness.

"Even with less than two Bank of England cuts priced in by year-end, the two-year swap rate gap between sterling and the dollar has now tightened to 19bp from 55bp at the start of October," says Francesco Pesole, a strategist at the bank.

He explains that the last time we saw that spread around these levels (early August) GBP/USD was trading at 1.28.

"Barring major US data downside surprises, we see no strong argument against a move to that level," says Pesole.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate is higher by 0.3% on the day at 1.3048 at the time of writing, with Pound Sterling catching a bid from above-consensus UK retail sales numbers.

Retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month in September, which was ahead of expectations for a reading of -0.3%, easing pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates in November and then again in December.

GBP/USD investment bank consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. It shows a sizeable uplift was made to the consensus forecasts for GBP/USD. Please request a copy here.

GBP/USD has thus far failed to make a concerted break below the 1.30 level, a move that appeared to be on the cards following the midweek release of below-consensus UK inflation data.

"Sterling has proven to be a bit more resilient than we had thought after that sharp downward surprise in services inflation on Wednesday," says Pesole. "Cable has hovered around the 1.30 mark, and so far failed to make another decisive move lower."

"Still, we think the balance of risks remains skewed to the downside," he adds.

ING thinks the fall in UK services inflation, as reported on Wednesday, opens the door to back-to-back interest rate cuts, which can result in a weaker Pound.

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