Pound to Australian Dollar Rate Surges

Above: Still image of South Korean President Yoon declaring a state of martial law. Source: Channel 4 News.

The Australian Dollar is under pressure amidst political chaos in South Korea and a surprisingly weak domestic GDP print.

The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is a per cent higher on the day at 1.9722, making for the biggest daily advance since November 08, after it was reported the Australian economy grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter and 0.8% year-on-year.

This was a disappointment for the market given the consensus of economists estimated third-quarter GDP to expand by 0.5%/qtr and 1.1%/yr.

However, the details of the GDP data were potentially more concerning than the headline figure itself.

Growth was mostly driven by public demand as the government opened the purse strings, while the contribution from private demand was flat.

In addition, the contributions to growth by international trade disappointed.

"The falling terms of trade is expected to further weaken corporate profits which declined by -1.5% QoQ in Q3-24," says a note from Natixis Commercial and Investment Bank.

"These developments are anticipated to cool business investments and the labour market, which would, in turn, soften the underlying inflation, paving the way for the RBA to ease," adds Natixis.

The Australian Dollar has been helf aloft by the assumption the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the last of the G10 central banks to cut rates (excluding Japan). Yesterday, we reported that ANZ, one of the country's biggest lenders, had pushed back their call for the first rate cut to May from February.

Investment bank GBP/AUD consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. Featuring the median, mean, high and low points forecasted by over 30 investment banks. Please request a copy here.

However, these data cast doubt on these assumptions and prompted markets to bring forward rate cut expectations, which is weighing on the Aussie.

Markets are now pricing around a 56% chance of an interest rate cut in February, compared to 40% prior to the release.

"AUD/USD fell by around 1.2% because of the political issues in South Korea and weaker Australian Q3 24 GDP," says Kristina Clifton, FX strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

No one had South Korea on their radar at the start of the week, yet Tuesday saw an incredible turn of events in one of the East's most important economies.

The President declared martial law late on Tuesday, prompting the army to try and shut down the country's Parliament.

However, enough lawmakers broke through the barricade and entered Parliament to form a quorum and overturn the martial law announcement.

Two hours and 48 minutes after the initial proclamation, martial law was quashed.

Yet, uncertainty prevails on Wednesday, weighing down Asian-focussed currencies, such as the Australian Dollar.