South African Rand (ZAR) Exchange Rates: Forecasts See More Losses vs British Pound and US Dollar
- Written by: Gary Howes
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Updated 20th Feb.
We hear from one exchange rate forecaster on the growing pressures the South African Rand is likely to face in coming weeks.
The Rand breached the key 11 Rand to the US Dollar level overnight as emerging markets suffered from another round of sell-offs.
Emerging market currencies weakened on Wednesday after minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting suggested policymakers would maintain the pace of a withdrawal of monetary stimulus. Violent protests in Ukraine and Thailand also damaged sentiment towards emerging markets and the disappointing manufacturing data out of China also weighed.
There are signs that we could be at the start of another sell-off in the South African exchange rate complex. A look at today's rates confirms fresh weakness:
- The British pound (GBP) to South African Rand is trading at 18.3397.
- The euro to South African Rand is trading at 15.0813.
- The US dollar to South African Rand is trading at 10.9621.
Recovery in ZAR exchange rates
The Rand has quietly ticked higher over the last few weeks as fears about a broad emerging market crisis have gradually dissipated.
From a technical perspective though, the US dollar / South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) is now testing a key bullish trend line that dates back to late October.
According to analyst Matt Weller at GFT this leaves the USD/ZAR rate, and the wider ZAR complex, at a “make-or-break” level.
Rand exchange rate complex forecasted lower in sympathy with USD/ZAR
Weller gives the following forecast for the USD/ZAR:
"A break and close below the near-term bullish trend line at 11.00 could foreshadow a move toward the longer-term trend line / Fib level confluence at 10.75 next.
"This move has since emerged, and so far this week, the pair is bouncing back modestly from key support in the 10.75-80 zone.
"Looking to the price action, the February pullback can still be viewed as a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart.
A"s a reminder, this pattern is created by a strong rally, followed by a minor, controlled pullback. The formation suggests that buyers remain in control of trade and that the pair could form another leg higher if the near-term bearish trend line, currently around 11.00, is broken.
"Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is painting a bullish picture. The indicator has already broken above its corresponding bearish trend line, potentially foreshadowing a breakout in the USD/ZAR itself.
"The RSI has also continued to hold above the 40-45 zone; this area typically provides support within sustainable uptrends.
"A break above the near-term bearish channel could cause traders to start looking higher, with the next resistance levels located at the previous multi-year highs (11.39), and in the longer term, all the way up at the 12.00 round handle.
"Of course, a breakout from this flag pattern is not guaranteed, and a breach of the 4-month bullish trend line and 38.2% Fib support at 10.75 would shift the bias back to the downside for a possible pullback toward 10.35 (61.8% Fib retracement) next."
