Pound-Yen Rate "One to Watch" says ThinkMarkets

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• GBP/JPY spot rate at time of publication: 139.74
• Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 134.80-135.80
• Specialist provider transfer rates (indicative guide): 136.50-138.44
• More information on specialist providers here

Developments in the Pound-to-Yen exchange rate at the start of the new week leave it three quarters of a percent in the red at 139.76, however one analyst says it is too soon to suggest the pair is about to embark on a more concerted decline.

"Among the pound crosses, the GBP/JPY is an interesting one to watch – not only because of the renewed weakness for the pound, but also due to the yen’s perceived status as a haven currency with stocks coming under a bit of pressure of late. However, while the GBP/JPY may be down, it is not out. It is important not to get carried away as the trend for this pair is still bullish, which means rates could easily rebound – even if this scenario looks less likely," says Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst at ThinkMarkets.

GBP/JPY has decline alongside other Pound exchange rates as markets move to price in greater odds of the EU and UK failing to reach a trade agreement before year-end, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying at the start of the new week the UK "cannot and will not compromise on the fundamentals of what it means to be an independent country" to get a trade deal.

He insists failing to sign a trade deal would be "a good outcome for the UK".

The developments come ahead of the penultimate round of negotiations between the EU and UK, due to take place in London from Tuesday to Friday. The two sides have acknowledged that a deadlock exists and Johnson's comments reflect the need for intervention at the political level.

Looking at the Pound-Yen rate more closely in order to try and make predictions as to future direction, Razaqzada says "a doji-like candle... with a large-ish wick" has formed around a key resistance zone on the weekly chart has formed on the weekly chart, (see shaded area):

"However, on the daily, some of the key support levels and other technical indicators remained intact at the time of writing," says Razaqzada.

Examples of intact supportive signals are the exchange rate managing to hold above the 21-day exponential moving average and the bullish trend line, as well as horizontal support in the range between 139.75 and 140.00.

"While a breakdown appears imminent, it is worth remembering that the trend is still objectively bullish for this pair and so it could easily bounce from here," says Razaqzada. "Thus, the bears may wish to keep a close eye on rates and watch for a confirmed breakdown below the 139.75-140.00 support range by means of a daily close, before looking for any potential shorting opportunities."

Traders looking for further GBP/JPY upside are meanwhile urged to consider looking for longs around this key support zone on the back of some short-term bullish price action on smaller time frames, "or ideally wait for a key bullish trigger such as a break above the recent high on the hourly chart at 140.55," says Razaqzada.