Pound-to-Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Looking Higher on USD's Tariff Setback

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Rising uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy isn't helpful for the dollar.

The pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rises to 1.3521 on Monday, a solid 0.45% advance from the day's opening level, amidst uncertainty as to the outlook for U.S. tariff policy.

The dollar fell Friday after the Supreme Court in the U.S. overturned some of President Trump's key tariff policies, raising questions as to what he would do next. That uncertainty is the source of weakness in the dollar and other U.S. assets that could come to dominate the coming days.

"The broad market assumption is that this is not the end of the tariff story, and the President will seek a way around the ruling," says Kit Juckes, lead FX analyst at Société Générale.

The tariff ruling arrests the dollar's run of gains, which were built on the view that the U.S. economy was doing well enough to negate the chance of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. It also highlights the contradictory influences on the dollar of U.S. policy (negative) and economic fundamentals (positive).

"Bearish dollar sentiment is in a standoff with friendly fundamentals," says Juckes.

Recent dollar gains pushed GBP/USD as low as 1.3433 last week, erasing all of the year's advance and putting the market on notice for a more entrenched decline.

1.3433 coincides with the rising 200-day moving average, which has provided support on a number of occasions in late 2025 and early 2026, confirming it to be a support level that has kept the pound's nose pointed higher.

So taken together, GBP/USD is still holding onto a broader uptrend, but only courtesy of Trump's tariff setback. This, and the supportive technical developments leaves us looking for higher levels in the coming week.