US Dollar: US Fed Still on Target for September Hike

We gauge the reactions to the release of arguably the most important data event of the month and hear that despite a disappointment the US Fed will likely raise interest rates in September.

June has been kind to the US dollar with safe-haven inflows surrounding Greece’s debt debacle and a world less confident about growth.

Currency markets are also bidding the dollar higher on the assumption the the American economy will start to outperform once more.

That assumption was however dealt a blow on the 2nd when the June employment report disappointed as full-time jobs contracted and hourly wages stalled.

The headline Non-Farm Payrolls for June read at 223K, below expectations for a 230K read. Average hourly earnings are stuck at 0%, defying predictions for growth of 0.2%.

Yet, the outlook for the dollar remains arguably positive.

“Despite the June letdown, we still think that a September rate hike is possible. That’s because we see GDP growth accelerating markedly in the coming months,” says Stéfane Marion at NBC’s National Bank Financial Markets.

Marion’s research suggests that the US economy will be delivering strong jobs growth come September:

“The Conference Board’s leading economic indicator (LEI) is showing growth of 7% annualised over the past three months.  As shown, a jump of this amplitude is normally associated with real GDP growth in the 4-to-5% range. If we are right, labour market strength should soon resume and full-time jobs should hit a new record high by the end of the summer. For a data-dependent Federal Reserve, it would be hard not to follow through with rate hike (assuming the European situation does not worsen).”

Indeed, the non-farm payroll figures mean that the US economy has added jobs for 57 straight months, a record that looks set to continue in the run up to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s September decision on borrowing rates.

But there will be unease as expressed by the softer US dollar exchange rate complex. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com notes:

“Yet, adding hundreds of thousands of jobs each month hasn’t managed to bring down the unemployment rate as much as many would like, and there is concern that stubborn hourly wage rates are holding back consumer spending.

“As the US stocks up on burgers, hot dogs and fireworks to celebrate Independence Day, Yellen will be hoping for a strong summer of economic growth to cement the Fed’s case for an interest rate rise in the early autumn.”

Governor Powell recently said that the odds for a lift-off in September vs. December are currently 50-50.

Today’s employment report should not have changed the view of a single FOMC member.

“We continue to believe that the first rate hike will occur in September, as we anticipate that the economy will gain further momentum throughout the summer. Even the usually more dovish New York Fed President Bill Dudley acknowledged earlier this week in an interview with the FT that this might be good enough: “If the data continue to evolve in the way they have, I think September is very much in play,” says Dr. Harm Bandholz, Chief US Economist at UniCredit Research.

The message appears to be clear - we are still on course for that first interest rate rise but we are not seeing the take-off necessary to suggest that subsequent rises will occur at the necessary pace to bid the US dollar substantially higher from current levels.