Outlook for the GBP/USD Rate: Non-Farm Payrolls Stabilise GBPUSD

Forecasts for the British pound to dollar exchange rate from a number of industry analysts we follow.

“We are somewhat cautious as given the recent failure of the market around the 50% retracement and 200 week ma (circa 1.5879) we would have expected to see more downside follow through by now." - Commerzbank.

Following what is typically the premier economic data event of the month - US non-farm payrolls - we see the US dollar trading with a softer tone across the board owing to a worse-than-expected reading.

At the time of writing the pound dollar exchange rate is seen trading at 1.5602 - international payments are being delivered around 1.5176 by the typical high street bank while specialist providers are quoting closer to the market at 1.5426.

US NFP's read at 223K, below a 230K expectation - markets are selling the USD in response.

Losses are limited though, we have merely seen the pound into dollar conversion level head back into its 24 hour range above the 1.60 level.

US markets appear to have their minds on the upcoming long weekend and on other potentially more important issues:

"If Greece had already struck a deal with its creditors, a strong U.S. labor market report would be significantly positive for the U.S. dollar but in this current market environment a good number would only drive the dollar slightly higher as traders refrain from taking any major positions ahead of the holiday weekend in the U.S. and the referendum on Sunday," suggests Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management.

Commerzbank Maintain Negative Bias on GBP-USD

Turning to the forecasts, the technical picture is negative for the pound sterling against the dollar argues Karen Jones, a chart analysts at Commerzbank who notes GBP/USD continues to hold quietly sideways keeping her bias negative:

“We are somewhat cautious as given the recent failure of the market around the 50% retracement and 200 week ma (circa 1.5879) we would have expected to see more downside follow through by now.

“We are unable to ignore the possibility of one more leg up to the 1.5960 resistance line ahead of failure – but this is not our favoured scenario.

“Intraday Elliott wave count has become more negative and is suggesting that the market will now fail on rallies to the 1.5780 area.

“The market will have to drop back below 1.5550 (February high) to trigger losses to the 3 month uptrend at 1.5480. Only below here will cast attention back to the support at 1.5171, the June low.”

A Positive Approach: Upside Momentum

For those with a more positive bias on sterling / dollar we hear from Yann Quelenn, Market Strategist, at Swissquote Bank who sees short-term and longer-term gains:

“GBP/USD is still trading between the hourly resistance at 1.5930 (18/06/2015 high) and 1.5626 (17/06/2015 low). We expect the pair to gain upside momentum and to challenge again the resistance at 1.5930.

“In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a recovery bottom whose maximum upside potential is given by the strong resistance at 1.6189 (Fibo 61% entrancement).”

We would see little reason to doubt the bullish stance on GBP-USD until such a time when the USD gets back onto its bullish track.

The dollar would need upbeat news this week on the U.S. job market which would make the Fed more confident in raising rates in the months ahead.