GBP/USD Rallies After U.S. Services Sector Unexpectedly Slows
- Written by: Gary Howes
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The Dollar fell after an unexpected slowdown in the mighty U.S. services sector was reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The ISM Services PMI read at 52.1% in November, well below October's 56% and the consensus estimate of 55.5%.
The ISM said election ramifications and tariffs were cited by respondents to the survey as being behind a more cautious sentiment.
The index's Employment, Business Activity and New Orders components all receded versus the month prior.
In the wake of the release, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 0.32% higher on the day. The rise comes amidst a broader pullback by the Dollar.
The price action suggests markets have grown more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December after these softer data.
Several members of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee have spoken recently, with most saying they are inclined to cut interest rates if incoming data turns softer.
"This week's ISM reports have ticked that box and a soft jobs number on Friday would likely seal the deal even if next week's inflation data remains sticky," says James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING Bank.
Above: GBP/USD is forming a base following a period of decline.
GBP/USD investment bank consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. It shows a sizeable uplift was made to the consensus forecasts for GBP/USD. Please request a copy here.
"On balance, it is supportive of the rate cut narrative at the December FOMC meeting and suggests a cooling in economic growth in the fourth quarter," he adds.
ING tells clients that if Friday's U.S. job report indicates an approximate 100k net job creation, and the unemployment rate ticks up to 4.2%, then a 25bp rate cut on December 18 looks probable.
The Dollar has outperformed in October and November on the back of a run of above-consensus economic data releases that confirm the U.S. economy is in robust shape.
The data outcomes have prompted investors to slash expectations for the scale of rate cuts to come from the Fed, which has bolstered U.S. bond yields and the Dollar.
However, sentiment towards the USD is nearing stretched levels, leaving the currency at risk of a pullback in the event of data setbacks.
This PMI report is a perfect example of such a setback, and the Dollar's response is, therefore, unsurprising.
