Pound-Dollar 9-Month Uptrend Bolstered by "Golden Crossover"

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• GBP/USD spot rate at time of writing: 1.3919
• Bank transfer rate (indicative guide): 1.3528-1.3625
• FX specialist providers (indicative guide): 1.3783-1.3818
• More information on FX specialist rates, here
• Set an exchange rate alert, here

A "golden crossover" formation on the longer-term GBP/USD exchange rate charts have technical analysts at Commerzbank confident that Pound Sterling retains an uptrend bias against the Dollar.

Questions about the Pound's uptrend have risen over the course of March and April as a broader recovery move stalled, with the pair fading from February highs at just above 1.42 back down to lows in the 1.3670 region in March and April.

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate has nevertheless "held over a 9-month uptrend and has reasserted its up move," says Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank AG.

"Our bullish bias is boosted by a golden crossover on the weekly moving averages," she adds.

Long-term GBP/USD chart courtesy of Commerzbank. 

"GBP/USD has and reasserted its up move following its recovery just ahead of the 9-month uptrend," says Jones in a Weekly Technical Outlook briefing to clients.

This particular suite of research and forecasts offers investors a longer-term perspective of how a financial market is evolving and discounts the 'noisier' short-term developments.

"It is poised to test key resistance at 1.4018, the March high," says Jones.

Her research notes the 13 count on the intraday chart (above chart) and TD resistance at 1.4043 and suspect it may not hold the first break. Dips are indicated to hold 1.3890.

"Our bullish bias has been given a boost by the golden crossover of the 55-week and 200-week ma – they crossed over and turned higher – and this is generally regarded as bullish," says Jones.

A close above 1.4018 will target 1.4238/45 according to the analyst, the recent high and the March 2018 high.

"Dips lower will find initial support at 1.3859, the 55-day ma and 1.3717, the mid-April low, and be contained by the nine month uptrend line at 1.3660," says Jones.

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