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Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: 1.40 in Sight

Pound to Dollar article

Image © Adobe Images

  • GBP/USD spot at publication: 1.3933
  • Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.3545-1.3643
  • FX transfer specialist rates (indicative): 1.3717-1.3835
  • More information on securing specialist GBPUSD rates, here

The British Pound hit a new 34-month high against the Dollar on Tuesday amidst strong global investor appetite, leaving investors to focus on the key psychologically and technically significant 1.40 level as a potential next target.

Technical momentum remains solid and strategists we follow say there is no reason to stand in the way of the trend.

"GBP/USD trending in a consistent ascending channel here. Due a pullback before long, but just like last weeks move lower, it provides another potential opportunity to ride the wave. Need to break below 1.3773 to negate short-term bullish outlook," says Joshua Mahony, Senior Market Analyst at IG.

Technical momentum remains solid in GBPUSD

Above image courtesy of IG.

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was quoted at 1.3930 on Tuesday, having opened 2021 at 1.3674.

Analysts say Sterling's rally comes on a combination of fading Brexit anxieties, positive global investor sentiment and optimism that the UK's vaccine rollout can lead to an enduring unlocking.

"In FX, risk-on sentiment continues to prevail across exchange rates in both the G10 and EM universes, led by positive news on contagion (in the US) and vaccine rollout (in the UK). This, in turn, is tending to keep both the USD and JPY on offer, while GBP has room to consolidate above 1.39 and move towards our medium-term target at 1.40 and above," says Roberto Mialich, FX Strategist at UniCredit Bank in Milan.

"The ongoing vaccination campaign is boosting hopes for a perhaps quicker return to normal than previously assumed. Here, the UK has taken such a distinct (western) lead, it allowed prime minister Johnson over the weekend to lay out a timetable for finally lifting the measures," says Mathias Van der Jeugt, an analyst with KBC Markets.

The analyst adds that Sterling has gained against every G10 major apart from the Norwegian krone "which is surging amid an umpteenth rise of oil prices".

Traders at JP Morgan's currency desk in London say the next big upside level for the GBP/USD exchange rate is 1.4000, on a tactical basis.

"Still feel pretty good about sterling at this juncture as we open today testing the1.3885/95 level, with vaccination data continuing to impress as the UK hits the 15 million milestone over the weekend," says a note from the JP Morgan dealing desk to clients.

Should Sterling encounter weakness, initial support for GBP/USD is at 1.3800/10 and then 1.3750/60 says JP Morgan.

The U.S. Dollar has meanwhile reverted to a trend of broad based weakness in sympathy with the rise in value of global stocks which betray positive investor sentiment.

The relationship shows that for now investors are treating the Dollar as a safe haven and are opting to cut exposure to cash in favour of equities and other high growth assets.

Should the market turn lower the Dollar would therefore stand to benefit.

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