GBP technical outlook remains positive
- Written by: Will Peters
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There is no data with the potential to shake sterling today; hence we are left at the whims of broader market moves - particularly as regards the US dollar. Sterling will also find technical trading considerations of importance. Today Pound Sterling Live will be focusing heavily on both technical and fundamental forecasts for the British currency.
14:00: Divergent forecasts on euro pound exchange rate
Where is the euro / pound exchange rate going to be next year? Depends who you listen to. UniCredit have this afternoon called GBP-EUR at 1.08 in December 2014. Deutsche Bank see it at 1.2.
See the UniCredit exchange rate forecast tables, and the Deutsche Bank tables.
13:20: GBP in early afternoon
A sniff of GBP profit taking on Friday afternoon we suspect:
- The GBP-EUR is 0.1 pct up at 1.1628.
- The GBP-USD is 0.21 pct higher at 1.5259.
- The GBP-AUD is 0.23 pct down at 1.6568.
- The GBP-CHF is 0.09 pct lower at 1.4373.
NB: It is important to note that the above are spot market quotes to which your bank will affix their own discretionary spread. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.
10:13: UBS bearish on GBP from a technical standpoint
The morning's technical forecast from UBS concerning GBP-USD is Bearish:
"There is a strong resistance at 1.5283; which should be held on a closing basis. Initial support is at 1.5041 ahead of 1.4814.
EUR-GBP forecast is Bullish:
"The recent downside should be limited with a strong support at 0.8590.With them MACD above its zero line, focus is on upside towards 0.8647 and then, 0.8815."
9:50: UK borrowing figures disappoint
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing was at £10.234 billion in June, official figures released by National Statistics show, following £12.770B billion registered in May.
Analysts expected £9.450 billion.
9:16: Deutsche Bank warn of GBP-USD declines
Bilal Hafeez at Deutsche Bank in London is backing strong US dollar gains through the reminder of 2013:
"EUR, GBP, SEK and CHF are roughly within 1% of their starting levels against the USD from three months ago. It is tempting to write these currencies off, but we continue to look for notable dollar strength against GBP, CHF and EUR. An earlier Fed exit from easing steps, stronger growth and a shift in capital flows should help the dollar for the balance of the year."
9:08: UK public finance data ahead
The only real economic release of any importance out of the UK today concerns public sector finances.
Lloyds Bank Research say:
"Domestically, after a busy week for economic releases, attention turns to is on the public finances for June. We forecast the deficit in this month at £10.4bn, ex interventions, higher than the consensus £8.0bn. Even this implies a narrowing deficit from a year ago. £10.4bn would be £1.4bn below last June’s shortfall. Moreover, after allowing for capital transfers and windfall payments, the first quarter of 2013-14 is expected to be around £10bn better than the first quarter a year ago. "
8:35: Spot rates at the UK market open sees sterling slip
Looking at the latest British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) forex rates we note:
- The pound to euro exchange rate is 0.12 pct in the red at 1.1602.
- The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.06 pct higher at 1.5233.
- The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.03 pct up at 1.6614.
- The pound to Swiss Franc is 0.16 pct lower at 1.4362.
- The pound to New Zealand dollar is 0.16 pct down at 1.9250.
NB: It is important to note that the above are spot market quotes to which your bank will affix their own discretionary spread. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.
8:30: GBP outlook on Friday shows positive momentum remains
Looking at the charts we see sterling enjoys a positive setup owing to recent positive momentum.
Investors Intelligence give the following short term guidance on the main GBP exchange rates:
GBP/USD: Gains expected above 1.515 with 1.526 & 1.53 in sight. The downside breakout of 1.515 will open the way to 1.5075 & 1.5025.
EUR/GBP: Losses are forecast below 0.8645 with 0.8575 & 0.8555 in sight. The upside penetration of 0.8645 will call for 0.8675 & 0.871.
GBP/CHF: The upside prevails as long as 1.436 is support, below 1.436, expect 1.434 and 1.433.
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8:26: Pound to euro exchange rate at 1.2 by end of 2014
Those holding out for 1.2 on the pound / euro exchange rate could be disappointed say Deutsche Bank.
The latest exchange rate forecasts from Deutsche show GBP achieving 1.2 at the end of 2014. Take a look at the exchange rate forecasts table here.