What lies ahead for GBPUSD in the final day of trading before the US Independence day holidays? Can the GBP fight back ahead of the UK PMI Services data?

@ 10.10: GBPUSD Moves Higher On Highest UK Services PMI Since 2011

    09.40: EURGBP Moves Lower On Negative Services PMI Data

    08.55: GBP Continues Strong Gains On Australian Dollar

17:00: 5pm Spot Rates On A Good Day For The Pound

A positive day for the GBP ahead of tomorrows Bank of England meeting and the USD independence day.

The euro to pound exchange rate is 0.54 pct lower at 0.8518.

The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.74 pct higher at 1.5268.

The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 1.47 pct higher at 1.6804.

The pound Japanese yen exchange rate is 0.10 pct lower at 152.3630.

 Please note that these are spot market quotes to which your bank will affix its own discretionary spread. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.

15.49: Data Shows Traders Favouring Pound Against The Dollar But Divided On Other Pairs

The latest data from Oanda on current open trades on their platform shows that an increasing number of people are bearish on EURGBP and are backing strength in the pound.

58.93% of open trades on EURGBP are short as opposed to the 41.07% long trades.

The pound against the swiss france is more divided with 53.41% long trades and 46.59% short trades.

GBPUSD is even tighter with 51.97% long trades and 48.03% short trades. The final GBP pair included in their data was GBPJPY which showed the second most divided opinions of all the pairs (after EURUSD) at 49.19% long and 50.81% short.

On whole it appears that traders are unsure of the short term direction of the pound but the EURGBP figures suggest a larger percentage favouring the pound than usual in recent days.

14.24: Australian Dollar Continues To Fall Following RBA Governors Comments

The Australian dollar has continued to struggle against the pound as well as most other major currencies following last night’s comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens. He stated that he had “been surprised that the foreign exchange market has taken as long as it has to reflect the fact that the terms of trade peaked some time ago.”

He then went on to say “a flexible exchange rate is an important part of adjustment over all phases of the cycle and it remains a major advantage that we have one. If the economy needs a lower exchange rate, it will probably get it.”

Even with the trade data that showed unexpected improvements beating market expectations, AUD continued to fall.

GBPAUD is currently 1.6825, down 1.54% on yesterdays close.

14.00: Pound Sterling Continues Strong Gains As Economy Shows Improvement

It has been a good day for the pound so far thanks to positive data and growing signs that the economy is growing at a good pace. Andy Scott from foreign exchange brokers HiFX said of this mornings bullish moves:

“The Purchasing Managers’ Index for services leapt to 56.9 from 54.9, more than two points above the consensus forecasts and the fastest rate in more than two years. The pound gained by more than half a per cent against the Euro, and ¾ of one per cent against the dollar where it was trading at a 1-month low.”

Scott then went onto predict our earlier suggestions that this positive data should put an end to speculation over a round of quantative easing being announced in Mark Carney’s first meeting tomorrow.

“Today’s data continues a recent run of better than expected indexes on different areas of the economy including manufacturing and construction which all point to increasing levels of activity, new orders and hiring. Expectations for growth during the past three months have increased to around 0.5% and forecasts for the full year are being revised higher too, something we haven’t seen for a few years. The recent pick up in house prices and increase in mortgage approvals should also support consumer confidence/spending. This should pretty much eliminate whatever small chance remained of any change in monetary policy at the new Governor’s first meeting tomorrow and is likely to at least put on hold any further decisions on additional monetary stimulus.”

13.55: Positive US Employment Data Fails To Boost USD

The US labour market gained a boost earlier this afternoon as the Non-Farm Private Payrolls data released by ADP showed that employment had rose to 188k – an improvement on analyst predictions of 160K. The previous month was also revised to 134,000 from an initial 135,000.

The US jobs report will be released by the government at the end of this week and whilst this isn’t considered to be a good indicator of the incoming results, it is a positive sign for the jobs market particularly within private companies.

Despite the positive data it failed to boost the US dollar which held losses against the GBP and USD.

13.30: Afternoon Spot Rates As The Pound Moves Higher

It’s been a good morning for the British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) in which better than expected data from the services sector showed impressive growth and boosted the pound across the board. Despite the strong support for the pound it has moved lower against the yen prior to the start of the American trading:

The euro to pound exchange rate is 0.76 pct lower at 0.8497.

The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.71 pct higher at 1.5264.

The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 1.44 pct higher at 1.6808.

The pound Japanese yen exchange rate is 0.19 pct lower at 152.2180.

Please note that these are spot market quotes to which your bank will affix its own discretionary spread. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.

12.17: UK Economy On Course To Avoid Quantative Easing

Dean Popplewell, Chief Currency Strategist at OANDA said this morning that the UK economy looks to be on course to have expanded by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2013 and that new Bank of England governor may be unlikely to seek quantative easing to boost the economy.

“With a suggested print like this, there will be little need for any BoE member to make a case for QE. The underlying details were strong across the board and the outlook is being supported by a healthy new order book. This is another good data point to add to the better than expected manufacturing index and the expanding UK constructing sector,” Popplewell said.

11.45: GBPUSD Moves To Session Highs After Strong PMI Data 

The GBP rallied to session highs against the US dollar this morning on the back of strong data from the UK services sector that indicated the quickest growth since March 2011 last month.

The index increased to 56.9, significantly higher than the 54.5 the markets were expecting.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit the company that compiled the data, said of the growth ““The buoyant picture for June means the economy is on course to expand by at least 0.5% in the second quarter, with more growth to come.”

GBPUSD is currently at 1.5244 up 0.58% on yesterdays close.

11.41 Technical Analysis Of The Pound Against the Japanese Yen

GBP/JPY has breached the resistance of 152.03 which opens the door for the pair to test the key resistance level at 154.76. On the downside the support can be found at 151.26 (see also the rising trendline). Another support can be found at 149.26.

In the longer-term, bullish moves could see a strong resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) as long as the key support area between 146.46 (16/04/2013 low) and 145.88 (15/03/2013 high) holds.

10.07 GBP Continues To Gain On Australian Dollar Amidst Poor Retail Sales Data

The GBP has continued to make strong gains on the Australian dollar ahead of inflation data due out later this month and following confirmation that retail sales had increased by 0.1% in June, up on May’s -0.1% but significantly lower than the 0.3% growth that was anticipated.

"The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10% since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy," Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement.

At the time of writing GBPAUD is currently up 1.22% on yesterdays close, lying at 1.6772.

09.40 EURGBP Trades Lower On Disappointing Services PMI Data

The EURGBP traded lower following the release of Services PMI data for several key European nations. The pair moved down to 0.60% despite positive news from Spain and France which both increased on the previous months. Unfortunately for the Euro these two were generally considered the less important of the releases and the main two, Italy and Germany, both showed negative results. Similarly the overall Eurozone figures were disappointing, coming in lower than the previous month and lower than market expectations. The May low of 0.8422 is provides short term support while the 2012-13 support line comes into focus at 0.8401.

The report by Markit stated "service providers indicated a slight rebound in business activity during June, but the return to output growth was accompanied by falling new business intakes and an accelerated reduction in employment numbers within the sector. Meanwhile, operating margins remained under pressure, with cost burdens rising at a more marked pace than average tariffs in June."

09.24 Morning Spot Rates As GBP Continues Move Higher Against The Australian Dollar

The British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) has recorded further gains against the Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) in early morning trading.

The euro to pound exchange rate is 0.37 pct lower at 0.8532.

The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.03 pct higher at 1.5161.

The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 1.01 pct higher at 1.6738.

The pound Japanese yen exchange rate is 0.34 pct higher at 151.9890.

Please note that these are spot market quotes to which your bank will affix its own discretionary spread. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.

09.10 GBPUSD Technical Analysis Remains Bearish Following Yesterday’s New Lows

GBP/USD made a lower low yesterday and is now challenging the support at 1.5141. The short-term technicals look bearish as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.5249 Another support is given by the rising trendline at around 1.5088.

In the longer-term, the break of the horizontal range defined by the strong support at 1.5235 (13/01/2012 low) and the strong resistance at 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) calls for a further medium-term decline. The decline from the top at 1.5752 is viewed as a new phase of weakness. A test of the support at 1.5009 (29/05/2013 low) is expected at the very least in the medium-term.

07.37: Key Events For The Day Ahead

08.43 (Italy) Markit now release their data regarding the services sector PMI, with Spain, Italy, France, Germany and Europe as a whole all being on the receiving end of Markit analysis. Any reading over 50 will show positive signs for the economy, under 50 would be negative. Only Germany is expected to show over 50.

09.28 (UK) The UK’s turn  for the Markit Services PMI, expected at 54.5, slightly below the previous months 54.9. Anything over this will be positive for the pound.

10.00 (Europe) Retails sales both year on year and month on month are released from Europe. Numbers are not expected to be positive, with the previous years figure at -1.1%. This years is anticipated at -2.0%.

13.15 (US) The ADP Employment Change data is released by Automatic Data Processing and measures the change in the number of people employed in the US. Any rise is usually considered positive and with 135k in May, a figure of 160k is expected in June.           

15.00 (US) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from June is also released by the US showing business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector. The previous month was 53.7 with the next expected at 54.0.

15.00 Jacob Lew, US Secretary of the Treasury, gives a speech which may have an impact on the US dollar depending on it’s contents.