British Pound Live on Wednesday the 19th: GBP looks to recover from an absolute stinker of a day; BoE Minutes and Mansion house speech ahead
- Written by: Will Peters
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Today's live coverage of the British pound will be dominated by the Bank of England MPC minutes. The last 24 hours have not been easy for sterling and it will be interesting to see if yesterday was a blip or the start of a deeper correction.
Highlights:
@9:40: Sterling didn't soar in the wake of Bank of England MPC minutes
@9:40: "Sterling Will Soar"
@ 9:09: Predicting a bounce for GBP-USD
15:05: British pound struggles to advance
The British pound is struggling to retrace the losses made on Tuesday. We see:
GBP-EUR is 0.07 pct higher at 1.1690.
GBP-USD is also 0.07 pct higher at 1.5654.
GBP-AUD is 0.15 pct lower at 1.6467.
See our latest predictions for the GBP-USD and EUR-GBP rates.
12:52: TD Securities see GBP-USD pulling back towards 1.57 in coming days
Shaun Osborne at TD Securities on the next possible direction in GBP-USD following today's Bank of England MPC Minutes:
"The discussion on asset purchases remained largely the same as last month, and the vote for holding the program steady was still 6-3. The next meeting becomes much more interesting as the new BoE Governor Carney takes the helm. After reaching above 1.57 at the start of the week, GBPUSD has topped out for the time being, and we look for a pullback toward 1.55 in the coming days."
10:15: MPC minutes - no surprises here then
As Kathy Lien says below, had one extra member voted against further quantitative easing then sterling would have benefited. However, this was not the case.
Six MPC members voted in favour of maintaining asset purchases at £375 billion while three voted against.
Governor Mervyn King, David Miles and Paul Fisher who voted against preferred to boost the QE program by £25 billion to a total of £400 billion.
So, no surprises here then.
ALL EYES are now on the US FOMC event.
9:40: "Sterling will soar"
Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management tells us what could rescue the British pound's strong run:
"The minutes from the most recent monetary policy meeting, which was also King's last will be released today. The central bank left monetary policy unchanged but the meeting came on the heels of stronger manufacturing, service and construction sector activity, which suggests that there could a hint of optimism within the central bank. If one less member voted in favor of additional asset purchases, sterling will soar."
9:09: Predicting a bounce back in GBP-USD
We hear from Martin Smith at UFXMarket who is predicting a return to form for the pound versus the US dollar in his morning video update.
8:00: A recovery for sterling today?
The British pound had a poor day yesterday with unhelpful inflation data exacerbating negative corporate flows. Today's recovery is hardly convincing:
The pound euro exchange rate is 0.03 pct higher than at last night's close at 1.1686. GBP-EUR was pressured lower on corporate flows, a recovery ahead today?
The pound US dollar exchange rate is 0.08 pct higher at 1.5655.
The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.05 pct higher at 1.6500.
NB: The above are wholesale market quotes; your bank will affix its own discretionary spread when passing on your retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Please find out more here.
7:55: The key events for today
Lloyds Bank Research:
"The key domestic events today are the release of the June MPC minutes and tonight’s Mansion House speeches. The minutes are unlikely to carry much weight as the markets await the arrival of Mark Carney, but it will be interesting to see, in light of recent more favourable data, whether there were any change in the voting patterns this month from last months 6-3 split against further QE. Mansion House will see a key note speeches by Chancellor Osborne, as well as what will probably be Mervyn King’s last major speech as Governor."