British Pound Sterling Live on Monday the 10th of May: GBP mixed on a day light on data; GBP-AUD presses to new highs as Australian dollar weakens once more
- Written by: Rob Samson
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17:02: What does Tuesday have in store for the pound?
A more interesting day tomorrow for sterling. It all kicks off at midnight with the RICS House Price Index. A batch of data from the ONS follows at 9:30 with Industrial Production numbers being of importance. In the afternoon we have the GDP estimate from the NIESR.
See the numbers traders will be watching out fore here.
16:45: Slow day
Following the equity market close in London we see the pound is hanging about the same levels witnessed earlier on in the day:
The pound euro exchange rate is 0.15 pct higher at 1.1753.
The pound dollar exchange rate is unchanged at 1.5553.
The pound Australian dollar rate is 0.3 pct up at 1.6435.
NB: The above are wholesale market quotes - your bank will affix a discretionary spread when transacting your money. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.
13:04: Sterling forecast at 1.10 versus the euro… yikes!
So you thought sterling was on an inevitable recovery back to the mid 1.18's did you?
Think again warns Marc Morley-Freer, Head of Private Client Business at Smart Currency Exchange:
"Fundamentally, I still believe that Sterling is undervalued against its Euro trading partner, but in the near term, I expect to see Sterling push down to 1.10 from 1.17 before recovering ground during 2014. This short term pressure is driven by the poor UK growth outlook, giving way to more monetary stimulus rather than any Eurozone strength."
13:00: Negative positions on the GBP expected to have been cut back
How do speculators currently perceive the British pound? Stephen Gallo at BMO Capital Markets has had a look at the latest speculative trader data from the CFTC and says negativity towards sterling will have been pared back somewhat - a positive development for thos awaiting further GBP gains:
"There are two currencies where IMM leveraged fund positions are close to historical maximums. They are AUD and GBP. At USD10.6bn worth, the short side of GBP stood at 90% of the historical maximum of 11.7bn for that side.
"This sizeable position was probably the reason for the big pop higher in GBPUSD during Thursday’s market meltdown. GBPUSD moved from about 1.5460 to about 1.5680 in two hours as stop losses cascaded. As a result of this cleanout, I suspect that about half of the GBP shorts were taken out so that position is no longer so extreme."
This will certainly take away some of the negative bias towards sterling.
10:48: GBP sells off against euro, but surges against the South African Rand
By mid-morning the British pound has sold off against the euro and US dollar (new article on this here) - but has enjoyed good gains against the commodity currencies once more. The losses being taken by the ZAR are of particular interest - we haven't seen such levels since 2008 and a test of the highs registered in that year should not be ruled out.
Watch out for our daily update on the GBP-AUD due within the hour.
8:15: Fresh losses for AUD
Yet more gains for the pound versus Australian dollar rate today: "Weaker Chinese trade, inflation and money aggregates data over the weekend should ensure
NZD and AUD remain under pressure," says Natalie Denne at ANZ Research.
8:13: The British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) is mixed
Looking at the three bellwether currency pairs we note a mixed performance at the beginning of a new week:
The pound to euro exchange rate is unchanged on Friday's close at 1.1768.
The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.3 pct in the red at 1.5514.
The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.61 pct higher at 1.6485.
8:00: The agenda for today
Well, there is actually nothing home-grown on the agenda for today. Global and technical considerations are thus the order of the day.
Lloyds Bank Research point out that tomorrow should see a pick-up in activity:
"On the UK front, tomorrow sees industrial production figures for April while labour market statistics for April/May are published on Wednesday. Industrial production is expected to to be unchanged on the month, while the claimant count is forecast to show a seventh consecutive monthly decline."