Euro Dollar Rate: Mid-Term Forecasts for EUR Against the Pound and US Dollar (USD) Improves as ECB Fades to Sidelines

If we look at the key euro rates the following mid-market levels are on offer:

  • The euro dollar exchange rate is 0.03 pct higher than at last night's closing rate at 1.3611.
  • The euro pound exchange rate is 0.07 pct lower at 0.7981.
  • The euro Australian dollar rate is 0.04 pct lower at 1.4475.
  • The euro Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.07 pct higher at 1.4734.

If you are holding out for better rates, or afraid of a further deterioration in the FX pair you are watching, then consider getting an independent FX firm to help set up a risk management strategy. They will also be able to deliver up to 5% more currency than your bank would typically deliver on execution.

Euro forecasts turning positive as buyers enter the market

This week continues to play into the hands of the euro as buyers enter the market to pick up the currency at cheaper prices.

An overbought British pound (GBP) also needs unwinding and the euro should continue to find a bid as action unfolds on this front.

The overtly negative technical setup on the euro dollar dollar exchange rate has improved and this should tempt further buying interest.

"EUR/USD continues testing 1.3580/1.3600 offers, while technicals are mixed. The 50-dma (1.3729) crossed below the 100-dma (1.3734) favouring technical shorts, while the MACD turns neutral. A daily close above 1.3552 should send the MACD in the positive territories," says Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Research.

"EUR/GBP touched a new correction low in the 0.7960 area. However, after the recent rally and with no big news from the UK, the rally of sterling finally ran into resistance. The correction is very limited, but suggests that the sterling rally is ripe for some consolidation, especially if the UK data would become less buoyant," says Piet Lammens at KBC Markets.

Calmer waters ahead with the ECB forecast to sit tight

The euro will also find buying interest increase on signs that the European Central Bank may sit on the sidelines for the remainder of the summer.

The euro rebounded against the U.S. dollar on Monday after Bloomberg cited an "ECB source" as saying that the central bank will refrain from new measures in the coming months.

"Having just introduced a series of aggressive monetary policy changes, it makes sense for the ECB to wait a few months to see how the economy responds before taking additional action.  We argued that a period of steady policy should help stabilize the currency pair above 1.3475 and so far this support level continues to hold," says Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management.

While the FOMC meeting poses a downside risk for EUR/USD, the losses should be limited.

Markets today: FTSE 100 sees an improvement

There is tepid buying interest in the UK equity market on Tuesday, however placed in the light of recent falls we would certainly not saying the downside correction has run its course.

With geo-political event risk hot on the agenda we are not seeing the necessary conditions required to retest recent highs.

Looking at those companies attracting attention today we note Shire has hired investment bank Citigroup as an adviser, expecting to receive takeover approaches following a wave of deals in the healthcare sector.

RSA is looking to sell its Asian operations in an auction that could fetch up to $500m and draw a wide range of suitors.

Royal Dutch Shell has launched the long-anticipated sale of its stake in Australia's Woodside Petroleum, looking to reap about $5.7bn as it moves to focus on developing its own gas assets in Australia.

Exempting Britain's banks from planned European Union rules to curb risky trading would be illegal, the bloc's lawyers said in a legal opinion that marks another setback for UK attempts to limit Brussels' influence on the City.

Mitchells & Butlers has completed a £266m deal to buy 173 new sites from Orchid Group, but investors remain unconvinced, with shares sliding slightly more than 1% yesterday.

Theme: GKNEWS