British Pound Sterling Live on Friday the 31st of May: GBP to come under pressure on Friday and in first week of June
- Written by: Will Peters
-
16:16: US dollar resurgence
The afternoon session on Friday has been dominated by a resurgent US dollar.
Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management says today's data out of the US has been USD supportive:
"This data keeps the Fed on track to cut asset purchase. Uber doves Rosengren, Dudley and Bernanke have made it clear that they feel changes can be made in the next few months."
16:15: Spot exchange rates as we head for the London close
The pound to euro exchange rate is 0.19 pct higher at 1.1695.
The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.6 pct lower at 1.5144.
The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.27 pct higher at 1.5809.
Please Note: The above quotes are taken from the wholesale currency markets; your bank will affix their own discretionary spread to the numbers. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.
14:48: The Data agenda for next week
A busy week for sterling next week with PMI's forming the focus on the economic front. See what economists are expecting here.
14:02: Month-end flows to work against GBP
Camilla Sutton at Scotiabank says month-end flows will probably work against the British pound:
"The last day of the month is sometimes impacted by passive equity portfolio managers rebalancing positions to benchmark weights.
"This month equities outperformed in most of Europe, the US and Canada with underperformance in Australia, Japan and Hong Kong.
"Accordingly as managers rebalance it could force some selling of EUR, USD, GBP and CAD and buying of AUD and to a lesser extent JPY as portfolios are re‐balanced back to benchmark weights."
12:05: GBP forecast to come under pressure next week
Dr. Vasileios Gkionakis at UniCredit Bank gives his outlook for the British pound next week:
"We expect the BoE to keep key rates unchanged at 0.50% and to leave the Asset Purchasing Program at GBP 375bn next Thursday. However, recent remarks by MPC member Weale and the weak CBI sales survey should keep markets sensitized for the possibility of a widening of the APP later this year.
"We expect cable to remain weak and EUR-GBP to gradually increase. A break of 0.86 might be in the cards as early as next week."
11:50: Good gains for the GBP/EUR
The euro is under pressure today thanks to comments from the Bank of Italy. See what the Bank's governor said that got currency players hitting the Sell button.
9:40: Bank of England data disappoints, but GBP/EUR gets a boost
The pound sterling has been boosted by news from the Bank of England this morning; data that had little overt positives.
UK April Mortgage Approvals came in at 53,710; below consensus estimates of 54,600.
Bank of England figures showed on Friday that net lending dropped nearly 3 billion pounds after a 545 million pound contraction in March, and was 4 percent down on the year, dealing a blow to hopes that investment might spur growth.
Net mortgage lending, which lags approvals, rose by a strong 875 million pounds, well above expectations and its highest since December.
The GBP/EUR has gained ground in the wake of the 9:30 release; the exchange rate is now at 1.1687.
GBP/USD and GBP/AUD have seen some nascent gains.
9:05: Ahead of the Bank of England Money Supply data...
Lloyds Bank give their predictions ahead of the 9:30 Bank of England data release:
"In the UK, following GfK consumer confidence overnight, the latest M4 money supply, mortgage approvals and consumer credit data are due. Overall, we expect the tone of the data to be slightly firmer, with the main focus likely to be on mortgage approvals for further signs of a pick-up in housing activity."
9:00: No boost for GBP overnight versus EUR and USD
The British Pound Sterling (Currency:GBP) has failed to find any major boost from overnight consumer confidence data:
The pound to euro exchange rate is 0.05 pct down on last night at 1.1670.
The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.16 pct lower at 1.5029.
The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.4 pct higher at 1.5829.
Overnight: Gfk data improves
At midnight we heard from Gfk who told us their monthly measure of consumer confidence rose more-than-expected last month.
In a report, GfK NOP said that UK Gfk Consumer confidence rose to a seasonally adjusted -22, from -27 in the preceding month.
Analysts had expected UK Gfk Consumer confidence to rise to -26 last month.
Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments:
There are now some real signs that consumers, while hardly confident, are moving out of the feeling of despondency that the country has been mired in for the last year or so. The current figure of -22 is fully 7 points higher than in any month of 2012, other than the -22 observed in November which we have to assume was a “blip”.