NZ Dollar Forecasts: Tech Ranges v GBP, EUR, USD and AUD in 2015
- Written by: Rob Samson
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Updated technical forecast ranges for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the British Pound, US dollar, Australian dollar, euro and Yen.
The outlook for the NZD took a turn into negative in the opening stages of 2015 when the RBNZ unceremoniously dumped its 'interest rate raising' bias.
"The downward pressure on NZD will remain significant," BNZ Bank tell clients in a currency strategy note.
But BNZ suspect the tumble will be arrested in the second half of 2015.
"By then, we will be able to judge the housing market’s response to today’s policy gamble. We will also be in the midst of a recovery in NZ commodity prices, after the collapse last year," say BNZ.
For the near-term outlook, we consider the expected ranges in the NZD crosses below.
Rates to Reference at Last Update
- The pound to New Zealand dollar exchange rate conversion: 1 GBP = 2.0709 NZD, see historical and retail rates.
- The euro to New Zealand dollar exchange rate conversion: 1 EUR = 1.5392 NZD.
- The NZ dollar to US dollar conversion rate: 1 USD = 0.7372 NZD.
- The Australian to New Zealand dollar conversion rate: 1 AUD = 1.0428 NZD.
- The New Zealand dollar to Japanese Yen conversion: 1 NZD = 88.20 NZD.
Please note all the above rate are subject to a discretionary charge when delivered by your bank. This can drive costs up by 5%, find out how to minimise this exposure.
If you are looking for the best rate Don't Hesitate, ensure your FX provider has the correct stop-loss and buy orders ready, find out more.
Febryary 2nd 2015 Forecast Update from ANZ Bank
- NZD/USD: US CAUTION
US consumers are expected to have remained cautious in January, with headline retail sales to decline, thanks in part to lower fuel prices. However, the USD should pay little attention, and remain in demand. NZ Business PMI is unlikely to change the NZD picture either.
Expected range: 0.7325 – 0.7430
- NZD/AUD: EMPLOYMENT LOTTERY
As the NZD/USD continues to resist the AUD/USD pull lower, this cross grinds higher. Today’s Australian employment data will drive short-term direction, but recently has been a very volatile series. However, for the next month or so NZD looks to have the upper hand.
Expected range: 0.9500 – 0.9630
- NZD/EUR: LEADERS’ SUMMIT
Europe begins its leaders’ summit today, with a tough agenda: Greece and Russia. Greek negotiations stood at an impasse last night, with Monday’s extraordinary Eurogroup meeting the key date for the Greek question.
Expected range: 0.6490 – 0.6560
- NZD/JPY: YIELD PLAY
USD/JPY has again breached 120 and NZD/JPY direction depends on its ability to break higher after recent consolidation.
Expected range: 88.30 – 89.10
- NZD/GBP: QUARTERLY INFLATION REPORT
The BoE presents its quarterly Inflation Report, which updates the BoE’s economic and inflation forecasts as well as the one year outlook. Expect it to show optimism regarding the UK’s growth, but highlight that the BoE remains extraordinarily patient on the rates front.
Expected range: 0.4800 – 0.4880
2014 - Previous Ranges for Reference
Pound Forecast Against the New Zealand Dollar
The recent slump in the NZD has come to an end and last week saw the rate move heavily in the Kiwi’s favor.
"This was helped by the fact that the UK Services PMI data was weaker than expected and reinforced by surprisingly good US data released on Friday afternoon. This assault on the pound’s strength was definitely seized by the Kiwi as we have seen a 5 cent movement in this currency pairing throughout last week’s trading," says Kamil Amin at Caxton FX.
We have the NZIER Business Confidence survey being released at 10pm tonight, if the data shows optimism in the NZ economic outlook, we could see the New Zealand dollar continue to make further gains against the pound suggests Amin.
ANZ Research are forecasting a range of between 0.4820 - 0.4900 in NZD/GBP, or 2.0746 - 2.0408 in GBP/NZD.
New Zealand to US dollar Forecast
ANZ Research tell us:
"The US economy continues to charge forward, with unemployment breaking below 6% for the first time since July 2008. However, the pessimists will note that wage inflation remains stagnant.
"The ISM non-manufacturing and Markit Services PMI’s were both stronger than expected. USD demand remains very evident and is driving the NZD/USD price action."
Expected range: 0.7680 – 0.7800.
New Zealand to Australian Dollar Forecast
Australia is out for Labour Day today, and this cross is likely to tread familiar ground this week. The RBA meeting tomorrow and Australian employment on Thursday are the key risk factors to watch this week."
ANZ's expected range for AUD/NZD: 0.8910 – 0.8990
NZ to Euro exchange rate forecast
"European Services PMIs continued the downbeat message for the EUR, with the EU composite below expectations. However, German services and EU retail sales gave markets a small glimmer of hope both increasing," say ANZ.
The bank tells us to look for a range between 0.6150 and 0.6250 in NZD/EUR.
Forecast Against the Japanese Yen
ANZ say:
"The NZD marginally outpaced JPY during the USD rally. This cross remains side-lined as markets trade USD risk. Tomorrow’s BoJ should not upset this balance, but should a surprise occur it would be JPY negative."
Expected range: 84.60 – 85.80.
The outlook for the NZD took a turn into negative in the opening stages of 2015 when the RBNZ unceremoniously dumped its 'interest rate raising' bias.
"The downward pressure on NZD will remain significant," BNZ Bank tell clients in a currency strategy note.
But BNZ suspect the tumble will be arrested in the second half of 2015.
"By then, we will be able to judge the housing market’s response to today’s policy gamble. We will also be in the midst of a recovery in NZ commodity prices, after the collapse last year," say BNZ.
For the near-term outlook, we consider the expected ranges in the NZD crosses
