British Pound Live: GBP holding firm at mid-day, are we seeing best levels versus the Australian dollar?

Modified: Tuesday, 02 July 2013 16:54 BST

GBPUSD followed a positive day yesterday with heavy overnight losses, dropping below the 1.200 mark once again before early morning trading in the Asia session supported a rally back up above yesterdays close to rest slightly above yesterdays close at 1.5222.

Highlights:

@ 16.40: GBP Struggles Following More Positive US Data
@12:10: Concerns of a GBP-AUD decline
@11:27: Positive construction data fails to boost GBP

16:43: Latest GBP afternoon rates

The British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) has recorded further losses against the dollar (Currency:USD) in North American trading.

The euro to pound exchange rate is up 0.03 pct at 0.8588.

The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.30 pct in the red at 1.5172.

The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.48 pct higher at 1.6549.

Please note that these are spot market quotes to which your bank will affix its own discretionary spread. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to beat your bank's offer, thus delivering you more currency. Please find out more here.

15.50: USD Takes Back GBP Gains Amidst Strong Factory Order Data

US orders of factory goods increased for the second month in a row in May as belief that the manufacturing industry is returning to its previous strength following a recent slowdown in its recovery.

The US Commerce Department announced today that new orders for manufactured goods had increased 2.1%. Analysts had previously expected an increase of 2%. April's orders were also revised to an increased 1.3% rise instead of the previously reported 1% advance.

The US Census Bureau said “"New orders for manufactured goods in May, up three of the last four months, increased $9.9 billion or 2.1 percent to $485.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.3 percent April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent.”

The pound dollar had already begun to fall following a stronger morning and the data has backed support for the dollar.

GBPUSD is currently at 1.5174, down 0.28% on yesterdays close.

12:10: Is the Australian dollar due a comeback?

The British pound continues to maintain solid ground against the Australian currency, particularly after the overnight RBA decision.

For GBP-AUD watchers the question now is whether they take advantage of these good rates. Watch out the rebound in AUD-USD warns Boris Schlossberg at BK Asset Management:

"Despite the RBA's decidedly accommodative stance the central bank is unlikely to make a move on the interest front anytime soon unless the economic situation Down Under deteriorates markedly. The Aussie therefore, looks a sold out at these levels and if the pair can remain above it recent swing lows of 9100 it can stage a short covering rally towards 9300 as the week progresses."

Any moves in AUD-USD are likely to be felt in GBP-AUD, thus a positive move in AUD-USD will see GBP-AUD lower.

12:10: Latest GBP rates at mid-day

The British pound sterling (Currency:GBP) is mixed at the halfway mark on Tuesday:

The pound to euro exchange rate is 0.13 pct in the blue at 1.1665.
The pound to US dollar exchange rate is 0.14 pct in the red at 1.5196.
The pound Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.47 pct higher at 1.6552.

11.27: Positive UK Construction Data Does Little For GBPUSD

GBP remained steady versus the US dollar despite positive data from the construction industry. The Markit data release followed yesterdays positive manufacturing data and showed a similarly positive outlook, with construction activity growing at the fastest rate in over a year last month.

Whilst showing positive overall improvements at 51.0 the data actually fell very slightly below market expectations of 51.1 which will have contributed to the minimal market reactions to the data. The construction data does not have the same ability to move the markets as the manufacturing data at the best of times but with the data more or less hitting expectations, there was little volatility.

Tim Moore a Senior Economist at Markit, the company that compiles the data said of the news “although the construction sector faces a long and fragile road to recovery, June’s survey highlights a nascent turnaround in optimism about future output.”

10.33: Forex Traders Undecided On Most GBP Pairs But Bearish On EURGBP

Traders using the Oanda forex trading platform appear to be mixed on their opinion of the GBP against the major currencies. 54.29% of open positions on the GBPUSD are long, leaving 45.71% of traders shorting the pair.

Similarly 53.95% of GBPCHF traders are also long with 46.05% currently having open short trades.

Opinion on GBPJPY is even tighter and is the most even split of all major currency pairs with 49.74% currently holding long positions to 50.26% shorting the pair.

Trader opinions of EURGBP is a little more definitive, with almost 69.74% of traders favouring the pound and shorting the pair as opposed to the 30.26% of traders who believe the Euro will strengthen.

09.58: Technical Analysis of EURGBP As Short Term Outlook Looks Bullish

EUR/GBP is challenging again the resistance area implied by the declining trendline (around 0.8584) and 0.8599. A short-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the hourly support at 0.8542 (28/06/2013 low) holds. Another hourly support can be found at 0.8518 (intraday low).

From a longer-term perspective, the recent inability to make any significant new lows below the support at 0.8411 and the break of the short-term declining trendline favour a base formation. Therefore monitor the resistance area between 0.8597 (24/05/2013 high) and 0.8637 (17/04/2013 high).

09.43: Mig Bank Analysts Bullish On Longer Term GBP/JPY Outlook

GBP/JPY continues to improve and is now challenging the resistance at 152.03 (see also the longer-term declining trendline). Hourly supports are at 151.34 (intraday low) and 150.51 (intraday low, see also the rising trendline).

In the longer-term, the analysts at Mig Bank have suggested that they anticipate further rise towards the strong resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009) as long as the key support area between 146.46 (16/04/2013 low) and 145.88 (15/03/2013 high) holds. We do not expect a break of this resistance in the coming months though.

09.14: Technical Analysis Of GBPUSD As It Moves Higher In Morning Trading

GBPUSD opened in Europe with bullish moves up past the 1.5220 mark following strong manufacturing data yesterday which strengthened the GBP across the board but most noticeably against the US dollar.

The resistance at 1.5280, Friday’s high, could be breached but the 55 day EMA at 1.5250 will represent the first barrier that will need to be broken. Further resistance 1.5300 and 1.5320. Bearish moves will see support at 1.5182 and if that is broken then 1.5164 and 1.5109.

07.52: Today's Key Events In A Quiet Day For News And Data

09.30 (UK) The PMI Construction data starts off a relatively quiet day. Whilst the construction data does not have the same effect on GDP and subsequently the strength of the GBP as the manufacturing data, though results above 50 are generally positive. The expected result is 51.1, up from 50.8 on the previous month.

10.00 (Europe) The Producer Price Index is released by Eurostat and measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities. High readings will be bullish for the Euro and vice versa.

13.55 – 22.45 (US) Whilst no particularly important events take place in the afternoon, the US releases its Redbook Index and Factory Orders, though neither are expected to have a significant impact on the USD. However, the latter is worth keeping an eye on.

Another US event worth keeping an eye on is the 17.30 speech from the Federal Reserve’s William Dudley and the 22.45 speech from FOMC member Jerome Powell.