British Pound (GBP) on 9/01: Sterling in Fresh Assault on EUR as ECB Sounds a Bearish Warning
- Last Updated: 03 April 2014
Updated: The GBP exchange rate complex has come under pressure once 
more at the start of April with the entire Markit PMI series missing the mark. However, many analysts continue to consider the latest price action as being representative of consolidative price action.
April will be pivotal for the UK unit - can the uptrend reassert itself or will we continue to see more of the same?
Keep in touch with our Live Coverage Here. For the archived material for the day in question please scroll through please scroll down.
By Will Peters
Latest exchange rates
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15:46: A weaker Euro ahead
Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management tells us why today's ECB press conference should be viewed as EUR-negative:
"The main takeaway from today's European Central Bank meeting is that low inflation and the volatility in money market rates are becoming a bigger headache for the central bank. While the ECB left interest rates unchanged, the euro sold off when central bank President Draghi said they strengthened their forward guidance.
"ECB enhanced its forward guidance means they strengthening their dovish bias at a time when the Federal Reserve is hardening its commitment to tapering asset purchases. The improvement in jobless claims reinforces the positive outlook for the U.S. economy and labor market. We are still looking for the EUR/USD to drop to 1.35 in the near term and 1.33 over the medium term."
"The main takeaway from today's European Central Bank meeting is that low inflation and the volatility in money market rates are becoming a bigger headache for the central bank. While the ECB left interest rates unchanged, the euro sold off when central bank President Draghi said they strengthened their forward guidance.
"ECB enhanced its forward guidance means they strengthening their dovish bias at a time when the Federal Reserve is hardening its commitment to tapering asset purchases. The improvement in jobless claims reinforces the positive outlook for the U.S. economy and labor market. We are still looking for the EUR/USD to drop to 1.35 in the near term and 1.33 over the medium term."
15:12: You can't keep a good currency down!
Analyst Shaun Osborne at TD Securities says an acceleration in the GBP/CAD rate is likely to shape up:
"GBPCAD is pushing higher again this morning, reaching new cycle highs. You just can’t keep a good currency down. The slowdown in the bull move through December looks to have amounted to nothing more than a pause in the broader trend.
"We spot minor resistance at 1.7950 today—weak channel resistance—but the underlying move has quickly gathered bullish momentum behind it again on the short-term charts (reflecting a deeply ingrained bull trend on the longer-term studies) and our broader bull target zone (1.80/1.82) could be reached in fairly short order now."
"GBPCAD is pushing higher again this morning, reaching new cycle highs. You just can’t keep a good currency down. The slowdown in the bull move through December looks to have amounted to nothing more than a pause in the broader trend.
"We spot minor resistance at 1.7950 today—weak channel resistance—but the underlying move has quickly gathered bullish momentum behind it again on the short-term charts (reflecting a deeply ingrained bull trend on the longer-term studies) and our broader bull target zone (1.80/1.82) could be reached in fairly short order now."
13:58: Sterling races higher against the euro
The pound to euro exchange rate is now 0.23 pct higher at 1.2145.
The break higher comes in the wake of ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference which has been taken to be bearish.
There are signs that the ECB is considering further easing: "Pointless to speculate right now which instrument we would use, but all instruments allowed by the treaty/mandate, would be eligible."
Spare a thought for the EUR/JPY which has slumped 0.6% in the last hour.
The break higher comes in the wake of ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference which has been taken to be bearish.
There are signs that the ECB is considering further easing: "Pointless to speculate right now which instrument we would use, but all instruments allowed by the treaty/mandate, would be eligible."
Spare a thought for the EUR/JPY which has slumped 0.6% in the last hour.
13:16: Why Citi are bullish on GBP in 2014
Citi analysts are bullish on the GBP: "British Prime Minister David Cameron said to carry out plans to support the economic recovery such as reducing debts, lowering income taxes, creating job growth through support to SMEs and so on. Citi analysts expect U.K. economic growth may reach 3.2%, the strongest among major countries, which may support the GBP. GBP/USD may gradually rise to 1.75 for the coming 6-12 months."
Below: Economic growth forecasts for 2014 from Citigroup:
Below: Economic growth forecasts for 2014 from Citigroup:
EUR/GBP to target 0.8160?
"No statement from the BoE MPC and that's seeing Cable push to session highs. Keep an eye on EUR/GBP again where a close below .8250 will have shorts looking for .8160." (GBP/EUR at 1.2255) - FX Market Alerts.
12:00: BoE keep rates and QE unchanged as expected
NO STATEMENT released = GBP positive. So it's back to business as usual for the day.
11:02: GBP/USD forecasted to rise
More from Citigroup:
"GBP outperformed as the upbeat U.K. economy prospects continued to support the pound. GBP Outlook: The strong economic growth and high housing price will likely support the pound in medium term. Technically, GBP/USD may rise to 1.6603, with support at 1.6261."
"GBP outperformed as the upbeat U.K. economy prospects continued to support the pound. GBP Outlook: The strong economic growth and high housing price will likely support the pound in medium term. Technically, GBP/USD may rise to 1.6603, with support at 1.6261."
11:00: EUR may be undermined by ECB today say Citi
Ahead of the ECB policy decision, Citigroup say:
"Citi analysts anticipate that today’s ECB meeting may undermine the EUR. The ECB could maintain its cautious growth outlook and President Draghi may signal willingness to respond to any renewed funding tensions ahead. This will likely be EUR-negative."
"Citi analysts anticipate that today’s ECB meeting may undermine the EUR. The ECB could maintain its cautious growth outlook and President Draghi may signal willingness to respond to any renewed funding tensions ahead. This will likely be EUR-negative."
10:42: EUR/GBP could break below 0.80
Sean Lee at FXWW says the euro has further to fall against the British pound (GBP), but warns progress will be slow:
"As I’ve been saying for the last few days, this pair continues to look constructively bearish and a test of the bottom of the bear channel near .8200 seems very likely.
"I think that this cross will trade below .8000 (GBP/EUR @ 1.25) in Q1 but progress is usually slow and steady so be prepared to cover your shorts on any silly dips and reload on rallies."
"As I’ve been saying for the last few days, this pair continues to look constructively bearish and a test of the bottom of the bear channel near .8200 seems very likely.
"I think that this cross will trade below .8000 (GBP/EUR @ 1.25) in Q1 but progress is usually slow and steady so be prepared to cover your shorts on any silly dips and reload on rallies."
10:00: GBP losing ground vs EUR
It would appear investors are now keen to take money off the table ahead of the policy decisions to be delivered by the Bank of England and European Central Bank at mid-day.
The pound euro exchange rate has lost some 0.12 pct over the past hour. However GBP remains firm elsewhere.
The pound euro exchange rate has lost some 0.12 pct over the past hour. However GBP remains firm elsewhere.
08:23: BoE could react to falling unemployment
UniCredit see a chance that the MPC will react to falling unemployment today:
"We expect the BoE to leave the bank rate and the APF at GBP 375bn. We see chances that the MPC could release a statement to react to the latest fall in the unemployment rate."
Regarding the outlook for GBP UniCredit say:
"Cable is likely to struggle further up and down 1.64 on a steady BoE outcome, while EUR-GBP is seen trading below 0.8250."
"We expect the BoE to leave the bank rate and the APF at GBP 375bn. We see chances that the MPC could release a statement to react to the latest fall in the unemployment rate."
Regarding the outlook for GBP UniCredit say:
"Cable is likely to struggle further up and down 1.64 on a steady BoE outcome, while EUR-GBP is seen trading below 0.8250."
08:14: GBP will benefit if MPC doesn't change forward guidance
Yesterday we covered a host of views suggesting the Bank of England MPC will use their first meeting of the year to tell markets they are tweaking their forward guidance policy.
Sterling has remained strong despite this speculation and Lloyds Bank Research reckon a 'no change' will further underpin the British pound (GBP):
"The main focus today will be on the UK MPC meeting, with many now expecting some sort of statement relating to the unemployment threshold after comments in the press speculating on the potential for the threshold to be lowered. In practice, we doubt that the MPC will change anything until or unless the threshold is reached, and possibly not even then. We consequently expect no change in policy and no statement from the MPC today, which may be seen as positive for GBP given the speculation of a reduction in the threshold."
Sterling has remained strong despite this speculation and Lloyds Bank Research reckon a 'no change' will further underpin the British pound (GBP):
"The main focus today will be on the UK MPC meeting, with many now expecting some sort of statement relating to the unemployment threshold after comments in the press speculating on the potential for the threshold to be lowered. In practice, we doubt that the MPC will change anything until or unless the threshold is reached, and possibly not even then. We consequently expect no change in policy and no statement from the MPC today, which may be seen as positive for GBP given the speculation of a reduction in the threshold."
08:10: GBP/USD towards 1.65, EUR/GBP down to 0.82
Lloyds Bank Research forecast further gains for sterling:
"Upside scope for GBP/USD towards 1.65, while EUR/GBP has scope towards 0.82 following the break of last year’s low at 0.8252."
"Upside scope for GBP/USD towards 1.65, while EUR/GBP has scope towards 0.82 following the break of last year’s low at 0.8252."
