British Pound to Remain Vulnerable to Further Losses v Euro: Exchange Rate Analysts

• Quotes:
• Pound to Euro exchange rate today: 1 GBP = 1.1559 EUR, down 0.06%
• Euro to Pound Sterling exchange rate today: 1 EUR = 0.8651 GBP

The release of the second estimate of the first quarter's economic growth data by the ONS is the only home-grown fare on offer for Pound Sterling this week.

The revelation that growth was pegged lower by 0.1% on both an annualised and quarterly basis does paint a picture of a slowing economy but the news has hardly touched Sterling despite the tabloids screaming that the Pound has PLUMMETED.

Indeed, markets have seen economic activity pick up through the course of the second quarter and markets are betting the slowdown won't be as severe as some commentators are suggesting.

Therefore, technical considerations and the price moves in the Euro and the Dollar appear to be dictating Sterling values at the moment.

The Euro has been absolutely dominant but a corrective move lower in the shared-currency seen through the mid-week session has provided the most significant move in this exchange rate pairing over recent days.

The “EUR/GBP correction went a bit further, but new buying interest already kicked in just north of the 0.86 big figure,” notes Piet Lammens, an analyst with KBC Markets in Brussels.

This equates to a cap on the EUR/GBP exchange rate seen at 1.1628 where there is evidently a lot of Sterling selling and Euro buying amongst market participants.

But an intraday bottoming out in the big-brother EUR/USD exchange rate has ultimately prevented further EUR/GBP losses.

Therefore, “the EUR/GBP uptrend isn’t broken yet,” warns Lammens.

“Demand for Euros remains strong and steady,” says Samarjit Shankar, Managing Director, Head of iFlow and Quant Strategies at Bank of New York Mellon. Shankar has been watching the movement of funds into Europe for some time now and finds no surprises in the currency’s recent outperformance.

This stability has seen markets rush to price in a normalisation in monetary policy at the European Central Bank with many now expecting the ECB to signal such a move at its June policy meeting.

Most analysts now see the Euro as having positive long-term prospects as a result.

This is reflected on the chart of GBP/EUR in the recent move down from the peak in April when one Pound could buy you 1.20 Euros to the current 1.16 level:

Our studies suggest GBP/EUR has formed a ‘triangle’ pattern and is in the process of completing the fifth (‘E’) wave; triangles are composed of a minimum of five waves so this could be its last wave.

Technical studies, such as this, rely on charts to convey information about the underlying structure of a market and allow us to make good presumptions about future investor behaviour.

As such, after completing, the triangle should breakout in a highly volatile move either higher or lower.

Given the longer-term bearish outlook for the pair (Euro strength) we see a higher chance of a downside break.

There are several obstacles to a break lower, however, which we would like to see overcome for confirmation of a bearish breakout.

Both the lower border line of the triangle and the S2 monthly pivot need to be broken below for confirmation of a bearish scenario.

A break below 1.1450 would satisfy those criteria, and then probably eventually reach a target at 1.1150, calculated by extrapolating the height of the triangle lower.

One further technical feature on the chart suggests more downside, which is the smaller triangle which formed at the wave ‘D’ highs (outlined in red), which completed in a bearish breakout.

It is often the case on charts that patterns ‘echo’ and repeat, providing clues to future activity and we think that the larger triangle which is ending could be the echo of the smaller triangle.

This would further suggest a downside break in line with the smaller originating pattern.