Pound Sterling and PM Truss' Resignation: Analyst, Economist and Other Views 

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Prime Minister Lizz Truss announced on Thursday that she will resign from office following an undisclosed process to determine her replacement, leading to a range of responses from analysts, economists and others from across the economy, some of which are reproduced below.

The Prime Minister will remain in office for a period of one week as a process is carried out in order to determine who will replace her at the head of the governing Conservative Party and in 10 Downing Street.

This comes toward the tail end of a month of rebellion against the newly-selected Prime Minister and seemingly led by former ministers who did not make selection for the new cabinet or final stage of the recent party process.

With this Westminster had begun to make the parliament of the 2016-to-2020 post-referendum period, one of the most turbulent in modern times for Sterling, look like a well-functioning democratic assembly.

However, there is now further significant uncertainty about what all of this will mean for the currency, economy and country. 

Below various analysts and economists set out what they make of Thursday's events and their implications.

Stuart Clark, portfolio manager, Quilter Investors

“While Liz Truss’ resignation can draw a line under the unsettling policies, U-turns and shambolic operation of the latest government, there will, rightly so, be calls for a fresh election in order to validate the future direction of U.K. government policy."  

“A rushed process to elect a new leader and proceed with the Autumn statement will not allay concerns and anything short of a fresh mandate is unlikely to assuage international concerns about the stability of the U.K. government."

"This unfortunately will continue to act as a further headwind to unleashing the opportunities that exist within the economy and stock market."

“One silver lining we are seeing is the gilt market and sterling reacting positively to Truss’ departure."

"This, coupled with the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England’s comment that the bank may not raise rates as high as the market expected, does provide a steadying feeling following the volatility of the last few weeks."

"However, fiscal policy is still very much up in the air, and with inflation continuing to ravage consumers’ incomes, the economic picture still looks challenging and will for some time, regardless of who sits in No.10.”

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst, Markets.com

"There’s still huge uncertainty about whether the Tory party can survive in power. The economic policies were already dead in the water so the market doesn’t have a huge amount of genuine new information to move on despite the seismic events of the last 24 hours."

"Standing down maybe allows for new leader to see out term – likely Sunak/Hunt ticket - meaning fiscal restraint."

"Longer she clung on the bigger risk of Lab election victory – Labour hardly paragons of fiscal credibility so the market probably likes orthodox one-nation Tory economics more than anything else."

"Underlying problems facing the economy remain acute. Two years to fix the economy and Tory popularity – can it be done? Does ousting Truss open up fresh divisions and does BoJo make a return? Leadership election in the coming week – she is caretaker until then."

"Looks like the membership will be cut out. What does this mean for the market? Kneejerk verdict was damning but it’s all over the place so it’s important not to derive hard conclusions from these moves."

"The initial reaction seemed very appropriate as the market has acted as judge, jury and executioner for the Truss regime."

Paul Dales, chief UK economist, Capital Economics

"The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from its peak to its trough."

"Whoever takes over at Prime Minister from Liz Truss will probably have to tighten fiscal policy in the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 31^st October (rather than just reverse the previous loosening) to prove their fiscal restraint to the financial markets. As such, it’s possible that the recession will be deeper."

"Weaker GDP will contribute to an easing in domestic price pressures, but just not soon enough to prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates from 2.25% now to 5.00%."

William Mersters, senior UK sales trader, Saxo Bank

"Sterling's game of snakes and ladders is far from over, yet it's unlikely GBP will show many signs of long-term recovery."

"The economy is likely to continue to suffer at the hands of rising inflation, which has led to crippling everyday costs affecting households and businesses up and down the UK, reiterated by yesterday’s stubbornly high CPI announcement."

Joel Kruger, market strategist, LMAX Group

"The event does not come as a surprise as the pressure for this inevitability was building in recent days. We don’t expect to see much downside risk to the Pound from the event, and if anything, wouldn’t be surprised to see some demand as the market looks to find comfort in the alternative."

"As far as the Pound to Dollar rate goes, we will need to see a break back above 1.1500 to take the immediate pressure off the downside."

Joshua Raymond, director, XTB.com 

"The markets have now seen off a complete change in leadership of both No 10 and the UK treasury in just a matter of days. That is remarkable. Investor eyes now switch firmly to who takes over as the new PM and the fact it will only take a week is helpful to remove longer term uncertainty. The focus now shifts on who takes over."

Philip Shaw, chief UK economist, Investec

"Interest rate markets have rallied to price in a lower peak in the Bank rate, from 6.25% in late September to a touch above 5.00% now, but after the events of the past month and a half, the reputation of the UK remains on the line."

"While credibility is easily lost, it can take a very long time for it to be regained. In this respect markets will consider it essential for the Chancellor to be able to carry through his plans to bring the UK back on course to meet its fiscal rules."

"The party intends that the leadership contest is completed by 28 October. It has also been indicated that the full party membership will be involved. The rules of the contest have yet to be made public but our suspicion is that a high bar in the number of supporting MPs will be needed for a potential candidate to enter the contest. Indeed Chairman of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady conceded that it was possible that only one candidate might emerge."

"In short further information will emerge in due course and the situation is very fluid. However it should be noted that the Tories are on the backfoot and on average are trailing Labour in the polls by around 30%pts. Hence we would expect the party to try to paper over the cracks of its own disunity in order to avoid potential electoral annihilation. The next general election is not due until 2024, which the party will hope will give time to turn public opinion around."