Exchange Rate Forecasts TODAY: USD up, GBP up, AUD down, JPY down, EUR neutral
- Written by: Gary Howes
-
Exchange rate forecasts issued by a selection of the big names we follow shows the US dollar is currently the currency to beat, closely followed by the pound sterling.
The US dollar gained support through the course of the past 24 hours as better than expected US retail sales for December reduced concerns about the US recovery.
This strength remains with us on Wednesday.
Below are a selection of key short-term foreign exchange rate forecasts issued by the big names we follow.
(NB: Our FX quotes are taken from the spot markets; your bank will subtract a discretionary spread when passing on their retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer and deliver you up to 5% more currency. Please learn more here.)
Pound dollar exchange rate forecast (GBP/USD)
"While support holds at 1.6317, there’s scope for more upside. Resistance is at 1.6502 ahead of 1.6622." - UBS.
"GBP/USD's continues to consolidate just above the key low at 1.6338 (06/01/2014 low). We favour a further swing higher to retest near the 1.6600 region, before a more meaningful correction lower can be realised. Resistances can be found at 1.6466 (intraday high) and 1.6517." - Luc Luyet at MIG Bank.
Euro pound exchange rate forecast (EUR/GBP)
"The cross extended its bearish price pattern of lower highs/lows, indicating further downside in the near-term. The next strong support is at 0.8160. Resistance is at 0.8332." - UBS.
"Long at 0.8315 for 0.8432; stop 0.82." - Danske Bank.
"EUR/GBP needs to break back over 0.8467 (17/12/2013) in order to validate the move lower to 0.8237 (09/01/2014 low) as being a false break lower. In the meantime, scope remains for a retest of this region. However, strong support would be anticipated there, should it be retested." - MIG Bank.
Euro dollar exchange rate forecast (EUR/USD)
"With the momentum falling, our support focus is at 1.3524. A close below which would be a bearish development, opening the way to 1.3458. Resistance is at 1.3656." - UBS.
"Sell at 1.3720 for 1.3560 objective; stop at 1.3. We still look for a lower EUR/USD in the medium to longer term and we have kept our 12M target unchanged at 1.26" - Danske Bank.
Dollar Yen forecast (USD/JPY)
"The pair is resuming its strength bringing our focus on critical resistance at 105.75. A close above which would trigger further acceleration to 110.74. Support is at 103.91 ahead of 103.09." - UBS.
"USD/JPY appears to have completed a standard corrective phase from the recent 105.44 high (02/01/2014). We are somewhat sceptical that this now clears the way for a fresh impulsive move higher, given extereme short JPY positioning. Supports can be found at 102.50 (17/12/2013 low) and 101.63" - MIG Bank.
"Short at 104.45 for 102.85; stop at 105." - Danske.
Australian dollar to US dollar (AUD/USD)
"Wednesday’s weakness confirmed momentum tools crossing lower within a downtrend, indicating potential decline to break through support at 0.8821 and expose 0.8545. Resistance is at 0.9005." - UBS.
"The long-term technical pattern remains negative. A decisive break under 0.8848 (05/08/2013 low) would open the way for a move towards the key support at 0.8067 (25/05/2010 low). A significant resistance is given by the 200 day moving average (around 0.9390)." - MIG Bank.