Mid-Term Forecasts For Cable From Leading Exchange Rate Analysts

The latest forecasts for the British pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) from a host of leading names in foreign exchange.

The British pound (GBP) has seen a relief rally shape up through mid to late October as the broad-based USD rally tapers out.

With support at 1.60 holding and rally to 1.61 following suit the pound has carved out a new range against the dollar.

Moving forward, what are the prospects going forward for the GBP to USD rate, particularly after recent falls back towards the 1.60 level in the second-half of this week?

At the time of writing the pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is quoted as being 0.10 pct in the red having reached 1.6033.

Be aware that the above is a spot market quote, your bank will charge a discretionary spread charge, however an independent specialist will seek to undercut your bank's offer. This can deliver up to 5% more FX in some instances.

Forecasts for the GBP to USD (Cable)

• Citibank:

"Fair value estimates for sterling derived on the back of rate spreads and measures of risk are starting to suggest that the worst of the selloff is behind us.

"Absent significant deterioration in risk sentiment and UK data from here the pound could recover some more. The BoE minutes next week could highlight that policy rates may start going up earlier than currently expected by the market," Citi argues.

"Cable could regain more ground especially if US CPI print comes on the soft side on Oct 22. We may have seen the lows for sterling against the euro as well."

• Camilla Sutton at Scotiabank:

"Shifting increasingly towards buy territory but with most signals lacking conviction. Support lies at 1.6080, while resistance comes in at the recent high of 1.6227."

• ICN Financial:

Positive expectations above 1.6065, risk-limit below 1.6000. The pair breached 1.6105 and stabilized above it, easing the way for positive trading in the coming period targeting mainly 1.6285.

"RSI and MACD support the expected bullishness that require stability above 1.6065 to extend it."

• SEB Group:

"Violation of 1.6126 targets 1.6226. The move higher may look near-term wedgy but even though near-term multi-stochastics to run rich; there is no real divergence just yet.

"Within the near-term price-channel there is room for extension towards the Oct9 high of 1.6226 without stretching it and this is the objective while holding above supports at 1.6080 or at least 1.6030.

"Current intraday stretches are located at 1.6070 & 1.6235."

• Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank:

"We also remain neutral with respect to the GBP-USD’s near term directionality although the ability to lift above 1.6135 on Monday bodes well technically for the pair towards 1.6200/25 in the near term ahead of the BOE MPC minutes tomorrow."