Technical Predictions for the British Pound, Euro, US Dollar and Swiss Franc

All these foreign exchange questions are dealt with in Commerzbank's latest medium-term currency forecast note.

For reference, the following mid-market rates are on offer at the time of writing:

• The pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is unchanged on a day-to-day basis at 1.7029.
• The euro to dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is 0.03 pct higher at 1.3608.
• The US dollar to Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) exchange rate is 0.02 pct lower at 0.8941.

Please be aware that the above mid-market quotes are subject to a discretionary spread levied by your bank. An independent FX provider will however seek to undercut your bank's offer and in some instances can deliver up to 5% more currency on execution. To learn more, please read here.

Euro dollar forecast: Can the correction higher extend?

Commerzbank's Karen Jones tells us the near-term outlook is starting to increasingly favour the euro:

"EUR/USD’s correction higher has gained traction and the break above the 20 day ma is looking directional.

"The Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting a rebound to 1.3770 prior to the next swing lower.

"Intraday dips are indicated to terminate at 1.3575 and currently indications are for a move higher. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.3677/90 (early June high and Fibo)."

Commerzbank's current positioning on the pair is as follows:

Shorts from 1.3577 stopped 1.3605.
Recommended trade: Buy at market, add 1.3580, stop 1.3535. Partially cover 1.3690 and exit the remainder 1.3725.

Dollar to Swiss Franc forecast: CHF starts to make a comeback

According to Jones:

"USD/CHF is under pressure and on the defensive and for the first time the 55 day ma at .8887 is starting to look exposed."

Why is this important?

"A slide back below here will leave the market struggling to regain upside momentum and even worse we suspect simply range bound. Resistance offered by the 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year at .9058 and the 55 week ma at .9063 is looking insurmountable at this point," says Jones.

Commerzbank's Current Position is a long entered at 0.8960 which is being exited for a small loss.

Pound dollar rate: Forecasting a failure at resistance

Jones reckons the key resistance levels this pair currently finds itself at will prove tricky:

"GBP/USD has reached major resistance at 1.7041/51 2009 high, 2005 low, we would allow for some profit taking to be seen here.

"We note the 13 count on the daily chart and the TD resistance at 1.7062 both suggest that we should allow for initial failure here.

"Currently the Elliott wave count is suggesting a retracement to 1.6955/30, while above here we would allow for another stab at the 1.7040/65 resistance."

Current trade: Longs from 1.6945 covered 1.7040.

Recommended Trade: Attempt minor shorts 1.7050, stop1.7075. Partially cover 1.6950 and exit the remainder 1.6930.