Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound Against Euro (EUR) and Australian Dollar (AUD) Predictions
- Written by: Gary Howes
-
The British pound (GBP) is forecast to build a base against the US dollar while the euro could fall further against sterling. The Aus dollar (AUD) is predicted to remain firm with gains predicted against the USD.
Consolidation and near-term weakness in some GBP crosses is likely to persist ahead of the Bank of England QIR event with investors taking their money off the table incase of any negative surprises.
The British pound remains ultimately bullish in the long run, but what are the numbers to watch out for? We consider them here.
(If you are holding out for a better exchange rate, then DON'T miss out. You can lock in current rates while taking out the option to transact when your preffered rate is reached. Get in touch with an FCA-regulated specialist and set up an automatic order to capture the best exchange rate you can.
An independent specialist will also fulfil your orders at rates that can be up to 5% more advantageous than your bank will offer. More details on this here.)
Pound sterling to dollar forecast
The pound to dollar exchange rate is forecast to see the following technicals in play by UBS:
"The pair has been correcting, with support at 1.6791 ahead of 1.6665. Resistance is at 1.6996 ahead of 1.7043."
Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank says:
"Better than expected March trade and industrial production numbers failed to arrest the GBP-USD’s fall through 1.6900 on Friday in the wake of continued EUR-USD softness. Note however the market’s relative preference with the EUR-GBP continuing to bleed lower on Friday.
"The BOE Inflation report this week may shed more light on the central bank’s leanings towards excess capacity and its policy posture (relative to prevailing market expectations). In the interim, some base building behaviour may be expected around the 1.6800-1.6850 neighbourhood."
Euro exchange rate forecasts: Big falls ahead?
Concerning the broader euro rate complex, Gareth Berry at UBS says:
"With EURUSD having already shed about 1.2% since Thursday’s ECB press conference, it’s worth asking how much further it can fall. Considerably further, in our view.
"We would not be surprised to see another four big figures of downside over the next four weeks. That would allow enough time for the market to digest the May flash CPI on June 3, the next ECB policy decision on June 5, and US non-farm payrolls on June 6."
Technically speaking, UBS reckon:
"The recent weakness confirms rejection from the recent new highs posted, and increases the risk for more downside. Support focus is at 1.3673, a break below this would open the way to 1.3477. Resistance is at 1.3869."
Australian dollar exchange rate forecast
The Aus dollar is meanwhile forecast to enjoy further upside moves.
UBS say:
"With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, there’s scope for an upside move to test resistance at 0.9461. Support is at 0.9203."
Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank has the following Australian dollar forecast for consideration:
"The RBA monetary policy statement last Friday largely confirmed the central bank’s neutral focus and markets will be looking towards the budget announcement (expected to be contractionary in nature) on Tuesday for further catalysts.
"We continue to stay sidelined on the pair pending the Chinese data stream this week. Given the still supportive risk appetite environment, dips towards 0.9300-0.9315 may find initial support while 0.9400 may cap pending further cues."