Exchange Rate Forecasts 30/01: Today's Outlook for Pound Sterling, Euro Sterling and Euro Dollar Rates
- Written by: Gary Howes
-
Pound Sterling Live compile a selection of the most relevant foreign exchange rate forecasts at hand on Thursday the 30th of January.
As expected the Fed kept the ball rolling and trimmed another $10bn from asset purchases leaving the total at $65bn per month.
This encouraged a firmer dollar and US data this afternoon (from 13:30) should support this downward trend provided expectations are met. A number of Eurozone figures were released this morning and this could threaten the 1.21 level in GBP/EUR.
UK net lending to individuals came in above forecast at £2.3bn, whilst mortgage approvals hit a January 2008 high at 71.6k.
Turning to today's exchange rate forecasts:
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Pound dollar exchange rate forecast
UniCredit:
"Cable is likely to still trade in the 1.65/1.66 band,after BoE Governor Mark Carney stated that the UK recovery has still “some way to run” before the bank considers interest rate moves and that “the rate rise will be gradual.” EUR-GBP will likely trade close to 0.8250."
Lloyds Bank:
"We expect GBP to remain well supported reflecting the recent run of decent domestic releases. GBP/USD looks likely to remain within the recent 1.6530-1.6630 range."
UBS:
"As bullish conditions persist, there’s further upside potential to resistance at 1.6747. A break above which would open the way to 1.7043. Support is at 1.6447 ahead of 1.6310."
Forex.com:
"GBP/USD edging lower for a second day as price continues to fail to hold above 1.6600 - potentially in the process of forming a reversal despite solid fundamentals. But bullish trend ~1.6380 still intact."
City Index:
"The technical outlook for GBP/USD continues to carry a substantial bullish bias moving further into 2014 and should continue to reach for higher highs. The near-term upside resistance target resides around the 1.6750 level, which would further extend the bullish trend, and then the 1.7000 resistance level.
"Key downside support tentatively resides around the well-tested 1.6300 price region."
Euro pound forecast
UBS:
"The important resistance is at 0.8349. While this holds, the cross remains vulnerable to extend its bearish trend to test support at 0.8160. A close below which would be the next bearish development."
Daily FX Research:
"Even though the EURGBP is a slower‐burning trade, the long‐term outlook remains tilted to the downside as it retains the bearish trend dating back to 2009. However, a steeper decline appears to be take shape as Mark Carney’s BoE moves away from the easing cycle. With that said, we will continue to look for a series of lower highs to sell the EURGBP, and the pair remains poised to face a pronounced decline in 2014 as the ECB prepares to implement more non‐standard measures in the coming months."
Forex.com:
"Bias higher above 0.8220 towards 0.8260 pivot initially ahead of 0.8305 highs, below may see 0.8200 & then 0.8165 prior lows next."
Euro dollar exchange rate forecast
UniCredit:
"The expected sharp deceleration of US GDP growth in 4Q14 may offer EUR-USD new support today following the Fed outcome. Charts still indicate 1.37 and 1.3760 as the key resistance levels to be broken."
UBS:
"Support lies at 1.3596, a break below which would expose 1.3508. Resistance is at 1.3746, a close above which would be a bullish development."
Forex.com:
'EUR/USD held above 50-day SMA & suport at 1.3645/50 on a closing basis. FOMC decision tonight may help price return towards LT trendline ~1.3560 or resistance at 1.3745 (61.8% of down move from Dec peak)."
City Index:
"Moving further into 2014, the outlook remains modestly bullish, despite the current pullback. Still comfortably above its 200-day moving average and within the confines of a bullish trend, EUR/USD could well seek further upside to extend the entrenched uptrend. The key upside targets on a trend resumption reside around the 1.4000 psychological level and then the 1.4250 resistance level.
"To the downside, on any further pullback, major support continues to reside around the 1.3300 level."
Dollar yen forecasts
UBS:
"The pair has been consolidating over the past few weeks, with support at 101.63 ahead of 99.96. Resistance is at 103.44 ahead of 104.84."
Forex.com:
"USD/JPY failed to break above 50-day SMA (103.45) overnight, currently disaplying a bullish engulfing candle on daily. But FOMC could change things drastically."