Rude Surprise for EUR/USD as Eurozone CPI is Revised Down

The final revision to Eurozone March inflation delivered a surprise to markets on Wednesday, April 18 after Eurostat announced a downgrade to annualised numbers.

Annualised Eurozone CPI was taken down a notch to 1.3%, from 1.4% previously, a move that triggered volatility in the Euro.

The EUR/USD plunged down to a daily low of 1.2341 when the numbers were released by Eurostat at 10:00:

The downgrade will have surprised markets who were looking for inflation to be heading back towards the 2.0% level which the European Central Bank targets - much of the Euro's recovery through 2017 was predicated that the ECB was confident enough in inflation returning to target that they could end their money-printing programme.

With inflation heading in the wrong direction, questions will be naturally asked if the ECB will in-fact turn of the presses by year-end.

Markets are yet to panic, and ultimately believe a gradual rise in inflation will ultimately materialise.

"The very low monthly observations in the second half of 2017 turned out to be temporary but at the same time, monthly changes in core are yet to gain pace in order to take annual inflation numbers substantially closer to the ECB target. The base effects from last spring and summer are likely to keep annual numbers at around current levels until autumn but by looking at the monthly numbers, the picture should get more positive step-by-step," says Tuuli Koivu, an economist with Nordea Markets.

The Euro has indeed recovered its post-inflation losses quite quickly, confirming markets are not yet too fazed by the data; it also suggests the range in EUR/USD that has dominated 2018 is likely to persist.

"The major pair has been mostly sideways in 2018, resulting in a contracted range that has taken the form of a triangle. At this point, with the price consolidating past 2/3 of the way to the apex, there is risk for that next breakout. Key levels to watch over the coming sessions will be 1.2477 and 1.2215. Above 1.2477 will open a move to a fresh 2018 and +3 year high, exposing massive falling trend-line resistance off the record high from 2008 which comes in around 1.2600. Back below 1.2215 will open the door for a deeper correction targeting a retest of the December 2017 low at 1.1720," says Joel Kruger, an analyst with LMAX Exchange.

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