Euro Boosted After German GDP and Inflation Numbers Paint A Brighter Outlook

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The Euro rose against the Dollar and British Pound on the penultimate session of October, helped by good news regarding the German economy.

Official German economic growth data was revised higher to suggest the country's slowdown was not as severe as previously recorded, while inflation fell sharply in October.

German CPI inflation was flat at 0% month-to-month in October said Destatis, down from 0.3% previously and below expectations for 0.2%. The year-on-year figure fell from 4.5% to 3.8% in September, undershooting expectations of 4.0%.

The data follows news that the economy shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which was less than the -0.2% the market expected.

Meanwhile, revisions point to the economy performing better than previously anticipated, with growth of 0.1% reported in Q2 instead of the 0% printed in the preliminary result.

Q1 growth was upgraded from -0.1% to 0%.

"The German economy is holding up better than expected in the face of an enormous energy price shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and global headwinds including the growth slowdown in China and the cyclical corrections in US and European manufacturing," says Salomon Fiedler, an economist at Berenberg Bank.

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is higher by a third of one per cent at 1.0590 at the time of writing, and the Euro to Pound Sterling rate is higher by a quarter of one per cent at 1.1445.

The German data points to Tuesday's all-Eurozone inflation numbers undershooting, which would boost expectations that the European Central Bank will be in a strong position to cut rates in 2024.

Typically such developments would weigh on Euro exchange rates, but the single currency is finding strength, perhaps as markets opt to focus on the positive German numbers.

"Heavyweight Germany contracted 0.1% q/q in the third quarter this year. That’s less than the -0.2% feared though. The Q2 figure was even revised up marginally to 0.1% q/q. It’s not much but it was enough for the euro to actually gain on the German outcome," says a note from KBC Markets. "EUR/USD bounced off the lower bound up the October upward trading range to test the 1.06 big figure again."