Euro-Dollar "Not Worth Chasing Higher for Now" Says ING Strategist

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The Euro's recent stability against the U.S. Dollar may not be sustained with one analyst cautioning against positioning for appreciation at this stage.

The latest research from Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING Bank, suggests that the current market conditions favour a Dollar comeback, which could limit the Euro to Dollar exchange rate's (EURUSD) upside potential.

EURUSD has found some support in the past few days, driven by the softening momentum of the U.S. Dollar, despite robust economic data coming out of the United States.

Pesole notes that while the Euro may benefit from the current USD weakness, he remains reluctant to chase EURUSD beyond the 1.0900 level.

"The current set of market conditions would suggest 1.0750/1.0800 to be a more appropriate trading range." This indicates a more cautious approach to the Euro's near-term outlook against the US Dollar. The lackluster eurozone calendar, with uninspiring data releases, adds to the case for a potential consolidation or retracement in EUR/USD," says Pesole in a daily currency briefing.

The focus now turns to key ECB speakers, including President Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to participate in a panel discussion.

While it remains unclear whether Lagarde will touch upon monetary policy, the insights from ECB policymakers, including Guindos, Stournaras, and Nagel, will be closely monitored for any indications of future policy direction.

Market participants are eagerly awaiting any signs of a potential shift in the ECB's stance, which could influence the Euro's trajectory against major currencies, including the U.S. Dollar.

Above: EURUSD at daily intervals.

Looking at the USD side of the equation, the U.S. non-farm payroll report is due for release at 13:30 BST and will give a clearer insight into how the labour market in the U.S. is faring.

Labour market dynamics are important as they determine wage dynamics, which are a major driver of domestic inflation which the Federal Reserve is trying to suppress via higher interest rates.

The market expects 230k new jobs to have been created in June, a result higher or lower than this would likely determine direction in the Dollar, with bigger moves following bigger misses.

But one analyst believes the risks to the Dollar are not symmetrical as downside risks are heightened on any undershoot.

"If the market sees even the smallest indication that the labour market in the US is not as robust as expected, I expect to see a weaker dollar," says Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank.

The Dollar would however likely benefit again should the non-farm payroll report print hotter than expected, "Another set of stronger numbers should further drive-up expectations for a second hike in September or November FoMC," says Christopher Wong, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.