Euro-Dollar Rate Could be on a "Very Long Journey to the Downside" says Bullwaves Founder

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- EUR/USD's attempted recover fails and pair declines for fourth day in row

- Analysts generally agree the pair is going lower

- Downside targets vary, however, from 1.1520-1.1400

The Euro is under pressure against the U.S. Dollar with EUR/USD trading at 1.1514 having began the week in the 1.1570s. The move lower comes amidst an environment of broad-based Dollar strength and Euro weakness with concerns over the state of Italy's finances being a driver of weakness in the single-currency.

The technical analyst community is increasingly of the opinion that the Euro is 'for the chop', although analysts vary in the degree to which they see downside evolving.

Valerie Bednariak, an analyst at FXStreet notes the evolution of a technical phenomenon known as a 'death cross' which is when a short MA crosses below a longer MA. It is usually a fairly reliable negative sign for a currency pair.  

"The price remains below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating its slide and already below the 100 SMA," says Bednariak.

Despite an attempt at a recovery which has taken indicators out of oversold territory, the pair has capitulated and more bad news is probably on the way.

"Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have corrected oversold conditions, but have stalled their recoveries and are attempting to resume their declines within negative levels, in line with additional falls ahead, particularly on a break below the 1.1570 region, now the immediate support," she adds.

Bednariak's downside forecast for the pair is to targets at the next set of support levels at 1.1520 and 1.1485.

Two separate analysts who use a form of technical analysis called Elliot Wave also concur on a bearish outlook for EUR/USD, although they differ in the magnitude with which they see such declines unfolding.

Elliot wave analysts often differ in their interpretations of market behaviour so to have two concur is an indicator in itself of an increased chance they may be on to something, particularly when backed up by other technical analysts.

Alex Geuta, an analyst at Liteforex sees the wave count on the 4-hourly chart favouring more downside to a target at circa 1.1550 - 1.1495 in the near-term, as a corrective 'X' wave forms within the B wave of a bigger wave 2 correction which may be destined to eventually end in the 1.07s, albeit after a rally up to 1.21.

Put simply the market is seen as evolving in repeating 5-wave Elliot wave trends followed by 3-wave corrections. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are the strongest trending waves; whilst 2 and 4 are corrective, and A,B and C corrective of the whole 5-wave move up or down. During ABC corrections 'X' waves can also form as intermediate waves within more complex corrections.

"If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels 1.1550 – 1.1495. The level 1.1800 is critical in this scenario," says Geuta, who notes that all bearish bets are off it the pair manages to break above 1.1800.

The other Elliot analyst who sees EUR/USD falling is Enda Brynne the founder of analysis site Bullwaves.org.

He is even more bearish seeing EUR/USD as now probably entering a major wave 3 down after just completing a wave 2 correction higher. Wave 3-s are often the strongest trending waves of all, suggesting the Euro has much lower levels to plumb.

"It looks like we have that top - with one caveat and that is that there could be a larger wave 2 unfolding. But seeing the nice acceleration we have had today and yesterday I am leaning in favour of a top being in and the fact that we got a nice impulsive move down definitely leans that way," says Enda.

"Next week should clear that up... We should get a three wave correction back up to about 1.1670, which could be a good bearish signal in EUR/USD," and be followed by EUR/USD "heading on a very long journey to the downside! Which will probably finish the Euro and I probably couldn't be happier to get rid of it!" adds Enda.

Enda's dislike for the Euro is explained in an anecdote about how his employers adjusted his pay down when the Euro first started in Ireland, whilst at the same time everything went up in price.

Enda's analysis suggests a move could be about to start which would take the Euro-US Dollar pair down to around parity.

Note, this is a long-term call.

Our own near-term analysis suggests further downside evolving after four down days in a row and the formation of a bearish 'three black crows' Japanese candlestick pattern.

The pattern is often indicative of changes in trend and this particular set-up has an increased chance of success since it shows a steeper move down than the move up which preceded it, and this supplies added confirmation suggesting more downside on the horizon, to a target at 1.1650, followed by further downside to 1.1400.

A break below 1.1525 would add further confirmation to the bear trend extending, as we said in our week ahead forecast.

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