Euro exchange rate today: EUR under pressure as USD strengthens, investors ignore good retail sales figures

By Gary Howes

The euro rate today: EUR sent lower by a stronger US dollar and pound sterling on Wednesday as markets ignored some good data on the retail sales front. 

As the below spot market quotes show, the shared currency is under significant pressure on Wednesday morning:

• The euro dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is 0.18 pct down on a day-on-day basis at 1.3590.
• The euro pound exchange rate is meanwhile 0.25 pct lower at 0.8281.
• The euro Australian dollar exchange rate is 0.11 pct lower at 1.5403.

NB: All the above quotes are taken from the wholesale inter-bank markets. Your bank will affix a spread to the rate at their discretion when passing on a retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Please learn more here.

The euro has succumbed to US dollar strength on Wednesday morning - the theme of a stronger US dollar in the year that the US Federal Reserve eases back its quantitative easing programme is tipped to be a dominant theme in 2014.

Expect this scenario to keep the EUR/USD pinned down in much of the year ahead.

Euro exchange rates also chose not to ignore data out of Germany where it was shown that the country's Trade Balance for November came in less than expected. Analysts had hoped for a reading of 18 BN EUR, but they got 17.8 BN instead. Not a massive miss, but a miss nevertheless.

Indeed, the euro is not likely to react to economic data ahead of tomorrow's ECB monetary policy decision. The currency has flat-out ignore some good news on the retail sales front. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) came in at 1.6%, well above expectations for a reading of 0.3%.

"We expect little market reaction with EUR/USD likely to remain range bound ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. While the inflation numbers suggest little case for further ECB action, there remains some uncertainty over how and when the ECB will address the upcoming liquidity cliff," say Lloyds Bank Research.

Today's euro forecasts

UBS are neutral on the EUR/USD saying: "Focus is on support at 1.3524, a break below this level would be a bearish development as it would confirm MACD’s settlement below its zero line. Any upside should find resistance at 1.3695."

With regards to the euro pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate UBS say they are bearish: "With the MACD firmly below its zero line, there’s potential for extension of the bearish trend. Support is at 0.8253, a break below which would expose 0.8160. Resistance is at 0.8346."

RoboForex say: "Euro is still consolidating; market has reached minimum of correction towards previous ascending wave. Later, in our opinion, price may continue forming ascending structure towards level of 1.4100. Alternative scenario implies that pair may move downwards up to level of 1.3555 and then start forming new ascending structure."