Euro Exchange Rate Forecasts: Today Sees EUR/USD EUR/GBP Come Under Pressure
- Written by: Gary Howes
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We present a selection of the latest forecasts concerning the euro exchange rate complex as well as insights into the current drivers of the EUR.
The euro exchange rate complex is today trading lower and the declines come despite a fresh market sell-off. This is important, because in previous sell-offs money has made its way into the Eurozone via a safe-haven demand scenario.
A look at today's euro exchange rates (EUR) shows:
Why is the euro weaker today?
Euro rates have come under selling pressure today courtesy of some poor data out of the Eurozone.
Eurozone flash PMI data disappointed investors as it missed expectations and sent EUR/USD tumbling through the 1.3700 level in early morning European dealing.
The EZ PMI came in weaker than forecast in both manufacturing and services sectors printing at 53 vs. 54.2 in the former and 51.7 vs. 51.9 in the latter.
"The numbers out of Europe were particularly bad in France where the services PMI gauge sank nearly three points to 46.9 versus 49.5 eyed. French manufacturing also remained under the 50 boom/bust line printing at 48.5 versus 49.6 projected. The overall European data was essentially rescued by the German results which posted a 32 month high on the composite index with services PMI rising to 55.5 from 53.1 the month prior," notes Boris Schlossberg at BK Asset Management.
Latest euro exchange rate forecasts
Below are a selection of the latest euro exchange rate forecasts at hand.
The euro dollar exchange rate forecast:
Matt Weller at GFT says: "The EUR/USD reversed course over the last 24 hours, turning lower amidst some disappointing data out of the Eurozone.
Eurozone PMI figured disappointed on the whole, though Germany was the one bright spot. Technically, the weak data created a Dark Cloud Cover formation on the 4hr chart, showing a shift from buying to selling pressure. Rates are currently stabilising around the 1.3700 level, though there is also support at 1.3680, the Monthly R1 Pivot.
RoboForex: "Euro is still consolidating. We think, today price may grow up towards level of 1.3815 and then fall down to test level of 1.3760 from above. Later, in our opinion, instrument may continue moving upwards to reach level of 1.3900."
Analysts at UBS say they are bullish on the EUR/USD: "With bullish conditions in place, there’s more upside potential to test trendline resistance at 1.3842. A break above which would open the way to 1.3893. Support is at 1.3674 ahead of 1.3562."
MIG Bank analyst Luc Luyet says: "EUR/USD has broken the key resistance at 1.3739, opening the way for a move towards the resistance at 1.3819. Hourly supports can be found at 1.3692 (see also the short-term rising channel) and 1.3657 (intraday low, see also 38.2% retracement of the rise from 1.3477).
"The break to the upside out of the medium-term horizontal range between 1.3477 and 1.3739 indicates a persistent buying interest. In the longer term, we favour a broad horizontal range between 1.3296 (07/11/2014 low) and 1.3893 (27/12/2013 high)."
Euro pound exchange rate forecast
Concerning the outlook for the EUR/GBP, Piet Lammens at KBC Markets notes:
"The UK currency is looking for a new equilibrium in the ‘forward guidance bis’ era. High profile good news is probably needed to inspired further sterling gains.
"Global factors might affect sterling trading, too. Sentiment might turn a bit more risk-off after the poor PMI in China. Of late, the euro was very resilient in a risk-off context. If the EMU PMI’s are reasonably good, EUR/USD might also (slightly) outperform cable today. So, we maintain a LT sterling positive bias, but in the day-to-day perspective, the sterling correction might have some further to go. We remain also a bit cautious on sterling ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales as we think that a rather poor figure is possible.
"The key 0.8168/60 support was challenged early this week. A break below this level would be a negative for the euro and a further positive for sterling. The jury is still out. Even as we have a sterling positive bias longer term, we stay a bit cautious short-term as the UK data might be slightly weaker than in the recent past. We keep a sell-on up-ticks bias."
MIG Bank say:
"EUR/GBP is bouncing near the support at 0.8160 (see below). However, the resistance at 0.8254 (50% retracement) has held thus far. Hourly supports lie at 0.8217 (intraday low) and 0.8191 (18/02/2014 low). Another resistance stands at 0.8280 (06/02/2014 low).
"In the longer term, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.8350 (13/01/2014 high). Monitor the support implied by the 61.8% retracement (of the 2012-2013 rise) at 0.8160. Another key support can be found at 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low)."
