UK Retail Sales Slowdown Might be Over Suggests CBI Data

One of the thorns in the side of the UK economic growth story, and hence confidence towards the Pound, has been the notable slowdown in UK retail sales growth since December 2017.

Recent data confirms the UK has witnessed a lull in sales activity which economists points to a the likelihood of slower economic growth in the wider economy for 2017.

There was a recent pick-up in the official data in the March release, and it looks like upcoming releases could extend signs of a recovery in the sector.

According to the CBI Distributive Trades Survey - released on April 27, retail sales growth accelerated in the year to April, with volumes rising faster than expected.

The report showed a reading of 38, a massive beat on the 6 expected by economists and the 9 reported in the previou month.

"After a dismal quarter for the high street in Q1, the strength of April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey is welcome news and helps to allay fears that real consumer spending growth is slowing sharply in the face of higher inflation," says Ruth Gregory, UK Economist at Capital Economics.

The survey of 112 firms, of which 57 were retailers, showed that the volume of sales grew at the fastest pace since September 2015 in the year to April, with orders placed on suppliers rising at the strongest rate for a year-and-a-half.

Overall, sales for the time of year were considered to be slightly above seasonal norms.

Looking ahead, however, the CBI does warn volumes growth is expected to slow in the year to May and sales are tipped to be broadly average for the time of year, with orders expected to be largely unchanged.

Within the retail sector, the clothing and grocers sectors performed particularly strongly, whilst retailers of furniture & carpets and specialist food & drink stores reported a second consecutive month of falling sales.

Internet sales continued to grow at a solid pace in the year to April, in line with the long-run average, and are expected to grow at a broadly similar pace in May.

Meanwhile, wholesaling saw robust growth in sales volumes in the year to April, while motor trades reported slowing sales, more rapidly than expected.

“Retail sales held up better than expected, especially considering that the Survey did not cover the Easter period. The warm weather in early April might go some way to explaining the uptick, with sales by clothing shops and grocers driving overall growth,” says Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist.

The CBI finds retailers are still cautious over the outlook, expecting slower growth over the year to May, as higher inflation eats into household spending.

“With price competition remaining fierce and rising costs squeezing margins, retailers face mounting pressures in the months ahead,” says Jones.

Details

Retailers:

- 59% of retailers said that sales volumes were up in April on a year ago, whilst 21% said they were down, giving a balance of +38%. This outperformed expectations (+16%), and was the highest balance since September 2015 (+49%)
- 37% of respondents expect sales volumes to increase next month, with 21% expecting a decrease, giving a balance of +16%
- 32% of retailers placed more orders with suppliers than they did a year ago, whilst 21% placed fewer orders, giving a balance of +18%. This was the highest since October 2015 (+19%)
- 33% of retailers reported that their volume of sales for the time of year were good, whilst 20% said they were poor, giving a balance of +13%
- Internet sales volumes continued to expand at a healthy pace (+48), with growth broadly in line with the long-run average. Internet sales volumes are expected to grow at broadly similar pace in the year to May (+47)
- Sales volumes grew strongly in clothing (+97% - the highest since September 2010), and grocers (+40%). Meanwhile sales volumes decreased in specialist food & drink (-43%) and furniture & carpets (-30%).

Wholesalers:

- 69% of wholesalers reported sales volumes to be up on last year, and 6% said they were down, giving a balance of +63%, and beating expectations (+44%). Volumes are expected to grow at a slower pace next month (+8%)
- The volume of orders placed upon suppliers accelerated (+53%, from +31% in March), but is expected to be broadly flat in the year to May (-1%).

Motor traders:

- 45% of motor traders reported sales volumes were up on a year ago, whilst 26% said they were down, giving a balance of +19%. This was below expectations (+31%) and follows exceptionally strong growth in March