Profound Global Change on the Horizon: Political, Economic, and Technological Shifts Expected

Image © Adobe Stock

The world, it seems, is on the cusp of significant transformation, driven by political shifts, economic adjustments, and technological advancements.

John Meyer, Partner and Head of Research at SP Angel, anticipates significant global shifts in the near future across political, economic, and technological domains.

Meyer argues that both geopolitical and economic factors are aligning to create a new era of global change, with major developments emerging from regions like Russia, China, Europe, and the Middle East.

Meyer highlights impending changes in Russia, noting that "Russia has amassed over 2,300 tons of gold to back its currency and support its economy. This gold is being used to buy weapons, among other things."

He also points to Ukraine, where the eventual reconstruction will create "new demand for commodities."

In the Middle East, Meyer suggests that the eradication of terrorist organisations could pave the way for reconstruction and a more stable regional system. "Iran remains dangerous but is likely to be subdued," he added.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Meyer believes the EU and the UK have an opportunity to redefine their trading relationships post-Brexit.

Meyer is looking for a "peace dividend" from the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the eradication of terrorist groups in the Middle East.

Economic Transformation

Russia's economic power has waned, with Meyer observing that it now looks more like "a subsidiary of China." He adds that China itself is facing challenges, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, and is taking on more debt to support its property and construction sectors. "A number of EV manufacturers and suppliers will collapse or be absorbed into their rivals," Meyer predicts, citing short-term financial difficulties in China.

In contrast, the United States is focused on growth, with the Federal Reserve recently opting for a 50-basis-point rate cut. Meyer says, "Reshoring is ongoing, and if the China supply chain collapses, the West is better able to manage."

Technological Shifts

Meyer also identifies profound technological changes, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector and renewable energy. "Electric vehicles are reducing the need for petrol and diesel, improving the balance of payments for oil importers like China and India," he notes.

Battery innovation, faster charging times, and longer lifespan are expected to drive further EV adoption in emerging markets like India and Indonesia.

Renewable energy is another area of transformation, with significant investments driving down energy costs. "Solar power capacity saw an 87% year-on-year increase in 2023, and wind energy is set to expand rapidly in the coming years," Meyer stated.

"In the great game of economic and political Mahjong, who will gain the upper hand?" he asks.