Swiss Franc: Sub-0% Interest Rates Ahead as SNB Goes Big
- Written by: Gary Howes
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File image of SNB President Martin Schlegel. Source: SNB.
The Swiss Franc fell out of bed this morning after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised with a 50 basis point hike, taking the base rate to just 0.5%.
The market expected a more measured 25bp approach, underscoring the SNB's penchant for surprising the market and the Franc.
"EUR/CHF and USD/CHF are bid after the SNB went big moments ago and dropped rates by 50bp to 0.50% instead of the more measured 25bp. With inflation in Switzerland still forecast to undershoot the target in two years, either the bank must try to weaken the Franc or keep cutting rates," says a reaction from Société Générale.
The Pound to Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rate rallied 0.56% in the 30-minute window following the decision, reaching 1.1330.
Looking at the money markets, we see investors are now pricing in a 0% base rate at the SNB by next September, underpinning the Franc's distinct interest rate disadvantage relative to other currencies that will have higher interest rates behind them.
Soc Gen analysts say, "a return to negative territory at some point is not ruled out if the forces restraining inflation do not ebb."
The SNB said the decision to cut interest rates followed another below-expectation inflation print, decreasing from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November.
It added that the latest interest rate cut should stabilise inflation within the "range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon."
The SNB's new average annual inflation forecasts are 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026.
The central bank is concerned about the uncertain economic outlook, but says recent interest rate cuts should boost growth "somewhat next year." The SNB currently expects growth of between 1% and 1.5% for 2025. Unemployment should continue to rise slightly, while the utilisation of production capacity is likely to decline somewhat.
