Pound Could Extend Gains Against Canadian Dollar in Coming Week, but Looking Increasingly Overbought
The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) rose more than any other G10 Sterling pair last week.
It spiked higher after Theresa May announced a snap general election in June in a move that took markets completely by surprise.
The Pound powered higher due to speculation the election would increase the government’s majority, thereby diluting the power of a minority of hard-line Brexiters within the Conservative party, who can currently hold the government to ransom due to its small ruling majority of only 16.
The thinking is that this should lead to a softer Brexit, which would keep alive trade links between the UK and Europe lessening the economic shock of Brexit.
From one Pound affording 1.67 Canadian Dollars on Monday evening then night before the news – it could buy 1.73 Canadian Dollars on Thursday, at its peak.
The break above the March 1.68 highs was the key development from a technical perspective as this established a new series of higher highs and lows which is the hallmark of a new trend.
The pair has already moved above the 50 and 200-day moving averages and breached a major trendline, so now that it is in a upward sequence of peaks and troughs there is a very strong case for arguing that it is in a new uptrend with strong bias to making further highs.
There is one proviso for the otherwise bullish outlook: the pair has moved to an overbought extreme in the short-term as illustrated by its breakout above the upper bollinger-band, a channel drawn at two standard deviations from the price's 20-day MA.
This probably means a period of sideways consolidation could follow before the next leg higher.
Initially, we see a likelihood of a move higher assuming a break above the current highs at 1.7343.
The next target to the upside is the support and resistance level at 1.7525.
Key Data in the Coming Week
For the CAD: Retail Sales and GDP are the main releases this week, with Retail Sales out at 13.30 GMT on Wednesday, April 26, and likely to show a -0.2% fall in February from 1.7% in the previous month. The main reason for the expected flop is due to the extremely strong Retail Sales figure in January.
GDP data is out at 13.30 on Friday, April 28, and is forecast to show a 0.1% rise from 0.6% in January.
For the Pound: Look out for GDP data on Friday (09.30 GMT) when the preliminary estimate for the first Quarter is released, and expected to show a slower 0.4% pace of growth compared to the previous period but an elevated 2.2% increase year-on-year (that is compared to Q1 in 2016).
Recall that Sterling is something of a political currency at present, therefore the headlines might have more of a bearing on the currency than economic data.
