Pound-Canadian Dollar Rate Surges on Trump's Canada Tariff Threat

Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour.

U.S. President-elect Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on day one of his new administration in January and threatened a further 10% tariff on all products from China.

The comments were unexpected as previously it was thought Canada and Mexico were low-priority targets.

"The Canadian dollar reacted the most to the move as Canada has not been a prominent target in Trump’s tariff threats previously," says a note from Saxo Bank.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is higher by 0.90% at the time of writing on Tuesday, having reached 1.7732. EUR/CAD is 0.77% higher at 1.4790 and USD/CAD is a per cent higher at 1.4122.

Trump's tariff comments were made on his Truth Social network, where he argued the tariffs were necessary to clamp down on migrants and illegal drugs flowing across borders.

He said China has failed to follow through on promises to institute the death penalty for traffickers of fentanyl.

"Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America,” Trump said.

Investment bank GBP/CAD consensus forecasts: The end-2024 and 2025 guide from Corpay has been released. Featuring the median, mean, high and low points forecasted by over 30 investment banks. Please request a copy here.

Trump had previously said he wanted to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 60%, which raises questions as to why the hike has been downgraded to 10%.

Yet, for FX markets, the bigger surprise is the focus on Canada.

Trump vowed to hit Mexico and Canada with a 25% tariff on "ALL products," saying he would sign an executive order to that effect on his first day in office.

"As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before," he said. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

It is reported that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau contacted Trump following the post to discuss border security and trade.

Trudeau is said to have pointed out to Trump that the number of migrants who cross the Canadian border into the U.S. is minuscule compared to those who cross from Mexico.

During his first presidency, Trump agreed the USMCA trade deal with Canada and Mexico, which contributed to a belief that the two North American countries were unlikely to be a priority for import tariffs.

The Dollar fell at the start of the week after weekend news that Scott Bessent was nominated by Trump as Treasury Secretary, meaning an experienced financial professional from Wall Street would oversee the implementation of tariffs.

Investors read this as a sign that the worst-case tariff scenarios were now less likely.

However, Trump has now made it clear such assumptions are wrong.

"We would view this as a timely intervention from President-elect Trump that sends a very clear signal to the financial markets – that the reaction to the nomination of Scott Bessent was wrong – there will be no soft or balanced approach to trade tariff policy," says Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets at MUFG Bank Ltd.