Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Failure @ 1.10 CAD Ensures Pro-CAD Outlook for Near-Term

This strength is feeding into the other CAD crosses where it bolsters the Canadian currency's chances, including against the euro and British pound.

Analysts continue to forecast this resilience in CAD to continue. For your reference, ahead of the new week the following CAD rates are observed:

• The British pound to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) has reached 1.8193. Note that the GBP/CAD is currently being dictated to by a weak GBP complex.
• The euro to Canadian dollar exchange rate (EUR/CAD) is at 1.4621.
• The US to Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) is 0.03 pct down at 1.0896.

Please note that all quotes here are taken from the spot markets - your bank will affix a spread at their discretion. But, an independent FX provider will seek to undercut your bank's offer, thereby delivering up to 5% more FX. Find out more here.

The US to Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) rate is 0.17 pct down at 1.0897.

USD/CAD Capped, Tight Ranges Forecast for Remainder of the Week

Action in the USD/CAD will continue to be instrumental in providing direction for the other Canadian dollar crosses.

"USDCAD remained capped at 1.0930 during the London morning, mainly as a result of the forthcoming full re-print on July employment which is due on Friday," says Stephen Gallo at BMO Capital.

Gallo reckons positioning adjustments in USDCAD are now likely to be lighter than they otherwise would in the run-up to that re-print, "and that will probably result in tighter than otherwise ranges between now and the end of the week."

Third attempt to break 1.10 fails

For the third time this month, the rally in USD/CAD failed right below the key 1.10-resistance level.

"On Friday USD/CAD soared after a disappointing employment report and today, it retreated on the back of stronger housing starts.  Although the increase in housing starts was a pleasant surprise, it is not meaningful enough to offset the weak labor data especially since the housing market is expected to cool further this year," says Kathy Lien at BK Asset Management.

It was however enough to drive USD/CAD away from 1.10, a level that has proven to be extremely difficult to break.

"There's nothing on Canada's calendar this week that is powerful enough to drive USD/CAD through this resistance level and from the U.S., all we have is retail sales.  If USD/CAD trickles lower and breaks below 1.09, there's no support until 1.08," says Lien.