Canadian Dollar Forecast: CAD Bears Sent Back to the Drawing Board to Reassess Predictions

The CAD remains on the front-foot in global FX during mid-week trade:

• The pound sterling to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 0.13 pct lower at 1.8229.
• The euro to Canadian dollar exchange rate (EUR/CAD) is 0.08 pct higher at 1.4633.
• The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate (USD/CAD) is 0.02 pct higher at 1.0749.

Please be aware that the above mid-market quotes are subject to a discretionary spread levied by your bank. An independent FX provider will however seek to undercut your bank's offer and in some instances can deliver up to 5% more currency on execution. To learn more, please read here.

Canadian dollar crushes all that stands before it

Those hoping for a weaker Canadian dollar through the remainder of 2014 best be wary.

The currency has taken heart from a number of data releases which have beaten expectations as of late, 6/6 data sets outperformed the consensus and CAD reacted by strengthening across all its major pairs.  

"Upon these releases GBPCAD fell from the high of 1.8468 to the low of 1.8297. The US dollar now buys the lowest amount of CAD since the start of the year at 1.0771," says a note on the matter from International Foreign Exchange.

"USDCAD was crushed by Friday’s stronger than expected Canadian retail sales and CPI data—falling to the lowest point seen since the start  of the year and below the 200-day MA," says Shaun Osborne at TD Securities.

CPI YoY was up to 2.3% where an increase to 2.1% from 2.0% was expected and CPI MoM read 0.5% instead of a forecasted fall to 0.2% from 0.3%. Retail Sales MoM was the biggest surprise at 1.1% where only a marginal improvement to 0.4% from 0.1% was anticipated.

Nevertheless, "we do not think the CPI data has any immediate implications for monetary policy as the BoC is likely to continue focusing on the transitory nature of the rise in headline inflation rates (due to base effects, the pass through from a weaker CAD and higher energy prices)," says Osborne.  

Upgrading Canadian dollar forecasts 2014

Analysts appear to be backtracking on the bearish forecasts they had previously held on the Canadian dollar owing to data that is surprisingly positive.

TD Securities are one such group who have had to re-evaluate their forecasts:

"As the dust settles after the CPI report, this feels a bit like a back to the drawing board moment for us, as long-time CAD bears and we clearly have to lower our sights for the USDCAD outlook in the near-term at least.  

"The slide back to the low 1.07s in USDCAD tales back about half of the rally seen from September last year—technically, a better spot for a now oversold USD to start to rally, the USDCAD bulls in us say.  But even if the USD can stabilize in the low 1.07s, near-term gains are liable to remain limited.  

"A quick recovery back through the upper 1.07s would be a plus but gains may not extend that much more than the low 1.08 area for the moment."