Canadian Dollar Outlook 30/01: CAD Up vs Pound Sterling, But USD Threatens to Advance Yet Again

By Gary Howes

The Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to find favour as markets appear to be tired of selling the unit for now. That said, the outlook is still poor for the Canadian dollar, and losses could soon return.

The GBP/CAD finally managed to close marginally above 1.85 but these gains were quickly reversed and the market seems to be favouring the Canadian dollar.

• The pound sterling to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is currently seen trading 0.3 pct lower than at last night's closing level at 1.8455.
• The euro to Canadian dollar exchange rate (EUR/CAD) is 0.6 pct lower at 1.5177.
• The US dollar to Canadian dollar rate (USD/CAD) is unchanged at 1.1173.

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During the London morning, USD/CAD topside through 1.120 was prevented by the general level of unease and cautiousness post-Fed.

We are however now seeing a strong comeback by the USD in reaction to today's data.

"Data from the US showed that US jobless claims increased more than forecast over the past week, climbing by 19,000 to 348,000. Adding to negativity, US GDP data came in slightly less than expected with the economy growing 3.2% versus the 3.3% expected. Although the figure didn’t meet expectations, the figure was the highest in three years, laying the ground for further improvement in 2014," says Lee Mumford at Spreadex.

Analyst Shaun Osborne at TD Securities says he thinks the USD will react positively to the good US GDP dative as it reaffirms the Fed taper process.  

"USD/CAD traded to a high of 1.1199 overnight but prospects for a push higher to the 1.1265/75 area—our long-standing technical target—remain strong.  The underlying trend is still powerful and, despite the narrower ranges and choppier trading seen in funds over the past week, the trend is showing no real sign of turning down.  We see very strong support now intraday at 1.1125/30," says Osborne commenting on the Canadian dollar's outlook.

Stephen Gallo at BMO Capital says he is waiting to see some consolidation in USD/CAD:

"Between the start of the week and now, USD/CAD topside potential has surpassed our expectations.  We are still within the expected 2-week range (1.100-1.125).  

"However, we would have needed the pair to stay between 1.103 and 1.107, with one or two lower closes in order to see the type of consolidation we were expecting.  Instead, what we’ve actually seen is a succession of three higher closes.  Also, daily relative strength is pointing to more upside potential.  We look for upside risks in the pair to dominate the whole of the NY session today, absent a big escalation of EM tensions."

The outlook for the Canadian dollar is now dominated by tomorrow's GDP data release. Analysts are predicting a Month-on-Month reading of +0.2% for November, lower than the previous month's +0.3%.

"Absent further EM distress, USDCAD looks to be a buy on dips above 1.115. With some EM distress, the likely dips range currently extends to the 1.110-1.113 range, and not much further.  Look to stay long of USDCAD if equities bounce nicely on the day," says Gallo.